Predictions 10/26/2012

Ominous signs for Mr. Romney and it could not have came at a worse time. In some states we are beginning to even see some signs of a race that is not only being won by Obama, but a race that is now trending his way. While nothing changed in the electoral count, the blue numbers in the margin column (Note: Blue numbers in the change column indicates it has gone towards Obama and red numbers in this column indicates a change favoring Romney) will tell the story. While some of the numbers were not that bad in and of itself, the source of the number is the bad sign. When you have ARG and Purple Strategies giving the numbers they are, it spells some trouble. A couple of the polls that were showing great numbers for Obama that was being docked as an outlier poll can either no longer be treated this way or have had the margin they were docked decreased. The cause of this shift is unknown and may never be. If it is a slight bounce from the last debate then look for these numbers to get worse for Romney in the days to come as clearer trend lines are drawn. Wisconsin was the only state that showed some positive news for the Romney camp, but that is only due to one isolated poll. If the election were held today I am about 75% sure that Obama would win a second term.

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	50%	0.20	0.20
Florida	Romney	29	60%	1.15	0.85
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	65% 60%	1.70 1.20	0.50 0.70
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	2.20	0.30
Virginia	Romney	13	55%	0.75	0.15
Wisconsin*	Obama	10	65%	1.90	0.30
Leaning States
Nevada*	Obama	6	80%		0%
Leaning States	Obama	6	70-85%		0
	Romney	0	70-85%		0
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	191	90% +		0
Total	Obama	249			0
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%		0
Projected Finish	Obama	281			0
	Romney	257			0
Popular Vote	Obama	0.80			0.10