tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392367469750550029.post2575959878630870767..comments2012-11-07T17:27:06.406-08:00Comments on Political Prognosticator : Predictions 10/26/2012Political Prognosticatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15219387853785997604noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5392367469750550029.post-57847912296358301182012-10-26T14:49:22.501-07:002012-10-26T14:49:22.501-07:00While I agree there is some concern with today'...While I agree there is some concern with today's polls, I disagree with your assessment that Obama would win with 75% confidence. While I do think that Obama would win (55% confidence), it is interesting that the incumbent rarely gets a higher percentage on the election day compared to the latest polls. That is, the states where Obama is polling 48% and "winning" the state could very likely go to Romney as Obama would get close to 48% and Romney 51% (other parties getting the remaining 1%). In my mind, no state is safe for either candidate until they hit 51%.<br /><br />Thanks for your hard work. Hillbilly Herbnoreply@blogger.com