Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Predictions 10/17/2012

The last couple days have not been very busy on the polling front so there was little reason to post an update on my predictions. However, we have seen some rather significant data today to change the status of two states. Nevada has moved from toss-up to a leaning Obama state due to two reputable polls showing a three point margin and a slight trending towards Obama. Wisconsin has moved from a leaning Obama to a toss-up due to a very good poll from Marquette University (great accuracy in past Wisconsin elections and was one of the very few that were very solid in the Wisconsin recall race) showing the race as within a half of one percent for Obama. This poll along with the trending towards Romney makes this only a .83 margin for Obama according to my formula. This poll will be welcome news in the Romney camp since this state has not been a part of his most plausible path to victory. (Winning Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) With Wisconsin in play this gives Romney some margin of erorr in the event he loses Ohio. Note: An asterick after a state signifies a change of category from the last predictions and as always EV stands for Electoral votes.
Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States

Projected Winner



Colorado Romney 9 60% 0%
Florida Romney 29 65% 0%
New Hampshire Obama 4 60% 0%
Ohio Obama 18 65% 0%
Virginia Romney 13 55% 0%
Wisconsin* Obama 10 60% 10%
Leaning States
Iowa Obama 6 75% 5%
Nevada* Obama 6 80% 15%
North Carolina Romney 15 80% 0%
Leaning States Obama 12 70-85% 4
Romney 15 70-85% 0
Safe States Obama 237 90% + 0
Romney 191 90% + 0
Total Obama 249 4
Romney 206
Toss-Ups 83 50-65% 4
Projected Finish Obama 281 0
Romney 257 0

1 comment:

  1. I caught your mention on 538. I lean left but appreciate all clear un-biased analysis. It's the only way to go. Thanks!