Predictions 10/17/2012

The last couple days have not been very busy on the polling front so there was little reason to post an update on my predictions. However, we have seen some rather significant data today to change the status of two states. Nevada has moved from toss-up to a leaning Obama state due to two reputable polls showing a three point margin and a slight trending towards Obama. Wisconsin has moved from a leaning Obama to a toss-up due to a very good poll from Marquette University (great accuracy in past Wisconsin elections and was one of the very few that were very solid in the Wisconsin recall race) showing the race as within a half of one percent for Obama. This poll along with the trending towards Romney makes this only a .83 margin for Obama according to my formula. This poll will be welcome news in the Romney camp since this state has not been a part of his most plausible path to victory. (Winning Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) With Wisconsin in play this gives Romney some margin of erorr in the event he loses Ohio. Note: An asterick after a state signifies a change of category from the last predictions and as always EV stands for Electoral votes.
Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	60%	0%
Florida	Romney	29	65%	0%
New Hampshire	Obama	4	60%	0%
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	0%
Virginia	Romney	13	55%	0%
Wisconsin*	Obama	10	60%	10%
Leaning States
Iowa	Obama	6	75%	5%
Nevada*	Obama	6	80%	15%
North Carolina	Romney	15	80%	0%
Leaning States	Obama	12	70-85%	4
	Romney	15	70-85%	0
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +	0
	Romney	191	90% +	0
Total	Obama	249		4
	Romney	206
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%	4
Projected Finish	Obama	281		0
	Romney	257		0