Predictions 10/19/2012

Sometimes a good day just doesn't show up in the score card. This was the case in these updated projectes as of noon. While there were several changes in my confidence levels and ultimatelty the margin in some of these states tilted more towards Obama, it was not quite enough to change any categories. Colorado is now a tie that you could just as easily flip a coin then to declare someone the leader there right now. Yet, I will place it still in Romney's camp just on the basis of him being the previous leader. To complicate matters there, some reputable firms are showing varying results. Ohio is still approximately a 2 point lead for Obama and thus it is a toss-up. The only significant changes was actually for Romney in that North Carolina is now out of leaning status and unless further shake ups arrive this should be considered a safe state for Romney. Despite a few requests for a status change in Pennslyvania being taken from Safe Obama to leaning Obama. I just cannot do it for reasons posted in my previous posts. I will say it is approximately a 4 point lead there for Obama and because I do not like to change states in and out of categories when they are on the edge I will await more evidence.

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Here are my projections in map form. Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States Projected Winner EV Confidence  Change Colorado Romney 9 TIE 10% Florida Romney 29 65% 0% New Hampshire Obama 4 60% 0% Ohio Obama 18 65% 0% Virginia Romney 13 60% 5% Wisconsin* Obama 10 65% 5% Leaning States Iowa Obama 6 85% 10% Nevada* Obama 6 80% 0% Leaning States Obama 12 70-85% 0 Romney -- 70-85% -- Safe States Obama 237 90% + 0 Romney 206 90% + 15 Total Obama 249 0 Romney 206 Toss-Ups 83 50-65% 0 Projected Finish Obama 281 0 Romney 257 0