Predictions 10/22/201

Lots of varying polls, but plugged in all together, does not make much of a change on the numbers. We are starting a new feature for all of the toss-up states with adding a deficit column and tracking the change in deficit rather then confidence level. The projected finish has continued to be the same throughout the past 10 days, which I believe to be consistent with real voting trends and a strength of the formula which does not lend itself to dramatic day-to-day changes. The biggest change today came in New Hampshire for two reasons: The UNH outlier poll that showed Obama by 9 and a trending bonus for Obama that originally was removed due to conflicting trend lines. We also added our projected popular vote leader and deficit. Hope you enjoy these projections and the debate tonight. As always spread the word to other political enthusiasts about this site. We would love to have some more comments as well. Remember, anyone is welcome to add their questions and comments as anonymous if you do not want others to know who you are. Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	55%	0.40	0.40
Florida	Romney	29	65%	2.00	0.00
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	60% 55%	1.20 1.50	0.90 1.50
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	1.80	0.20
Virginia	Romney	13	55%	0.90	0.00
Wisconsin*	Obama	10	65%	2.20	0.00
Leaning States
Nevada*	Obama	6	80%		0%
Leaning States	Obama	6	70-85%		0
	Romney	0	70-85%		0
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	191	90% +		0
Total	Obama	249			0
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%		0
Projected Finish	Obama	281			0
	Romney	257			0
Popular Vote	Obama			0.90