Monday, October 22, 2012

Predictions 10/22/201

Lots of varying polls, but plugged in all together, does not make much of a change on the numbers. We are starting a new feature for all of the toss-up states with adding a deficit column and tracking the change in deficit rather then confidence level. The projected finish has continued to be the same throughout the past 10 days, which I believe to be consistent with real voting trends and a strength of the formula which does not lend itself to dramatic day-to-day changes. The biggest change today came in New Hampshire for two reasons: The UNH outlier poll that showed Obama by 9 and a trending bonus for Obama that originally was removed due to conflicting trend lines. We also added our projected popular vote leader and deficit. Hope you enjoy these projections and the debate tonight. As always spread the word to other political enthusiasts about this site. We would love to have some more comments as well. Remember, anyone is welcome to add their questions and comments as anonymous if you do not want others to know who you are. Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States Projected Winner EV Confidence  Deficit Change
Colorado Romney 9 55% 0.40 0.40
FloridaRomney 29 65% 2.00 0.00
New Hampshire
Ohio Obama 18 65% 1.80 0.20
Virginia Romney 13 55% 0.90 0.00
Wisconsin* Obama 10 65% 2.20 0.00
Leaning States
Nevada* Obama 6 80% 0%
Leaning States Obama 6 70-85% 0
Romney 0 70-85% 0
Safe States Obama 237 90% + 0
Romney 191 90% + 0
Total Obama 249 0
Romney 206 0
Toss-Ups 83 50-65% 0
Projected Finish Obama 281 0
Romney 257 0
Popular Vote Obama 0.90

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