Thursday, October 11, 2012
This is my first published electoral college overview, which includes toss-up states and other states to watch going forward.
NOTE: A state has to have no more then a 65% probability of a candidate winning to be considered a toss-up in my estimation.
Nevada- Obama 65% victory
Colorado- Romney 60% victory
Florida- Romney 55% victory
Virginia- TIE (If I was forced to declare a winner I would go with Romney due to trend lines and the relationship between favorable popular vote polling with the electoral college map.
Ohio- Obama 60% victory
OTHER STATES TO WATCH:
Iowa- Obama 80% victory
New Hampshire- Obama 85% victory
Wisconsin- Obama 70% victory
North Carolina- Romney 80% victory
NOTE: I consider all other states to be at least a 90% probability of a candidate winning.
FINAL ELECTORAL COUNT:
Unchanged from yesterdays assessment
One can click on the following link to see my predictions (which includes no toss-ups) in map form.
Political Prognosticators Daily Electoral Map