Monday, October 22, 2012

A Night With Zingers But No Daggers

Who Won?
The one that convinced more voters of course. I know the media is caring only about who scored the most points. If you went according to that, then the president probably did. He was the one on the attack most of the night and he had to be. Romney played it safe, probably too safe in my opinion, and he could afford to. How many undecideds made up their mind tonight? If a large number did then that would likely spell trouble for Romney who was not trying to score a big win.  How many Undecideds did not even listen or watch the debate tonight? Here lies the key issue. If this small block of voters did not follow things tonight or stayed on the fence afterwords then this would probably spell serious trouble for Obama; considering the fact that fence riders historically favor the challenger more times then not. I could very easily make the case that Romney could have won tonight by default.

What Happened to the Truth?
Obama loves and supports Israel now? When did this start?
Romney is in favor of a timetable for troops being withdrawn from Afghanistan? What happened to you between last debate and this debate?
Obama says Al Queda's core has been decimated? Did something just happen over the past 24 hours that I never found out about? If it did then you might want to tell your generals on the ground that is of the mindset that Al Queda has been emboldened in the past few years.
Romney supports the actions taken in Egypt? Do people generally attack somebody on an issue for several months that they agree with them on?
As most of you know I am a conservative at my very core and have never been undecided in this election. However, when I hear lie after lie and flip flop after flip flop from both candidates I just cannot stomach it. Going back to my earlier question...Who won tonight? Definitely not the truth!

The State of the Race Post-Debates
We said coming into this debate that the pressure was clearly on Obama, considering the ongoing momentum that Romney has been riding. I felt like Obama would need not a win, but a dominant and huge victory. I do not think he quite got there. Does this mean that Romney will ride momentum to a victory. No one knows. What this likely will mean is that he will be going into the election in a dead heat. Obama was already the favored candidate on foreign policy by a 10-15 point margin. Is it really possible for him to gain anymore? I have my strong doubts. Is it possible that Romney gained a few points in that category? Very possible. However, I am of the mindset that most people will be voting based upon their pocketbooks on election day. Did this debate change their minds? I felt like Obama was probably effective at emphasizing nation building here at home. But, I also felt like the economic realities or the numbers that Romney shared always seems to help bring people back to reality. No one scored a knockout. No one made a big gaffe or blunder.Therefore, the race will probably follow the same basic trend going forward. If either candidate gets even a small bounce from this debate then that candidate will likely be the winner. That is how close this election is and that is how close I expect it to stay.

Expect Some Pro-Romney Polls Soon
Some polls have consistently shown betters news for each of the candidates. However, in a state like Ohio the average of all of the polls are not including data from Purple Strategies, ARG, and even Mason-Dixon. Romney needs to have these polls show positve data for him to have much of a chance. My guess is that we will begin to see a couple of these in the near future. Romney fans should not get too excited by good results here, they should expect them; considering the state of the race and what other mainline polls are showing. Remember, while many polls can be wrong, rarely will every single poll be wrong. In other words in a state like Ohio it should be troubling to Romney that the best result he can muster is a tie from any poll. I expect that to change if my assumption is correct on some of these polls popping up soon.

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