Rasmussen Now Showing Romney Winning Election

Rasmussen Reports has been a well known and well liked polling company for republicans since it started in 2003. Democrats claims they are always biased in favor of republicans while those in the GOP will tell you that they are relatively accurate and did a great job in 2008. Here's the reality...both sides are right. They do have a very good track record for accuracy in past presidential elections, but a very suspect record in other races. The problem is that they also have a long track record of republican bias which is held in greater scrutiny because Scott Rasmussen himself is a republican. The problem is that both sides have a strong tendency to over react when criticizing and praising the poll.

One of the biggest knocks against this poll in 2012 is their insistence on what is considered old methodology. They are not adopting to any of the new methods such as: calling cell phones, using an enthusiasm gap to determine voter turn out, sprinkling their state polls over a few days, etc. Could their instance on old methodology catch up with them in 2012? Perhaps, but making such a statement is rather risky until more evidence arrives. Nate Silver a professional prognosticator who was very accurate in 2008 is so sure of this assumption that he refuses to weigh their polls as he would other reputable firms. He claims that their methods have to catch up with them soon and assumes it will be in this election. I find this decision to be a major gamble that could create some obvious flaws in his numbers.

However, what everyone must remember is that they are only one poll. Whenever anyone puts too much stock in one poll it leads to terrible misconceptions. While they were one of the most accurate presidential polls in 2008 according to the ARG they also had their share of problems with republican bias. Most of these problems showed up in the important swing states and often with outlier polls. Here is a sampling of their final polls in some of the swing states four years ago and how it compared to the final results.

State	Final Rasmussen Poll	Final Result	Bias
Colorado	Obama by 4	Obama by 8.5	Republican- 4+
Florida	McCain by 1	Obama by 2.5	Republican- 3+
Nevada	Obama by 4	Obama by 12.4	Republican- 8+
New Hampshire	Obama by 7	Obama by 9.5	Republican- 2+
Ohio	TIED	Obama by 4	Republican- 4
Virginia	Obama by 4	Obama by 6.3	Republican- 2+
Wisconsin	Obama by 7	Obama by 13.9	Republican- 6+

Of course in all fairness 2008 was a very bad year in many of these same states for many pollsters, due to underestimating democrats turn out and overestimating republican turn out. Yet, what is different about Rasmussen is that they are always showing the same bias and gives numerous outlier polls in the process. Rasmussen was far more accurate in many of the other non-swing states.

If the election were held today Rasmussen has Romney pulling out Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and tied in Wisconsin. This would be plenty enough to make Romney the victor. So why am I 75% confident that Obama would win the election if it were held today?
1.) This is one poll and I consider all reputable polls.
2.) They are the only poll showing Romney in the lead in Ohio and tied in Wisconsin.
3.) Other polls with a known republican bias still has Obama leading in key states like Ohio, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
4.) I adjust their polls one point for being republican biased unless they are an outlier in which I more heavily adjust the number.

It is not that these latest Rasmussen polls are not important, because they are...in proper context. If Romney is to win the election he will need this firm showing good numbers in states like Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia.  These polls help compensate for some of the other left-leaning polls showing Obama in front by several points. The key is found in some of the other reputable firms showing similar numbers and at this point they are not.

Predictions 10/29/2012

More movement in Obama's direction over the weekend and it has become rather clear that Obama likely seen some help from the last debate. North Carolina was not able to escape his bounce and can no longer be considered a safe state. We also have a truly unique situation as we have two states with identical ties according to our latest numbers. What is even more unique is that the RCP average is also a tie in these two states. We are crediting Romney with both of these states still, only due to him being the previous leader there. There is the potential of quite a bit of movement in the days to come and if things continue in this direction we could have Obama's electoral lead growing considerably as has happened with his popular vote margin of victory. However, we did see some good news for the Romney camp in Ohio as the state has returned under the two point margin and has actually seen some potential trending his way, but not enough to move the final projected poll numbers there. A reminder that some time the final week before an election can see quite a bit of movement as undecided voters determine their opinion and likely the fate of the presidency. This is still a close election in many ways so if you once again do not like my findings come back tomorrow and they could be better (or worse of course) Those of you interested in the Senate races will find some projections here in the days to come and obviously my final projections on election day will also have Senate races included as well.

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	50%	TIE	0.20
Florida	Romney	29	60%	1.15	0.00
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	65% 60%	1.70 1.50	0.00 0.30
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	1.80	0.40
Virginia	Romney	13	50%	TIE	0.75
Wisconsin	Obama	10	65%	1.90	0.00
Leaning States
Nevada	Obama	6	80%	2.6	0%
North Carolina*	Romney	10	80%	2.5	Status
Leaning States	Obama	6	70-85%		0
	Romney	10	70-85%		10
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	181	90% +		10
Total	Obama	249			0
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%		0
Projected Finish	Obama	281			0
	Romney	257			0
Popular Vote	Obama	1.20			0.40

Still Hope for Romney

Republicans, step away from the cliff! This election is not over and in a few moments I will explain to you exactly why. I guess you could say this post comes as a result of the caving pressure I feel to give my republican readers some rays of hope after yesterdays projections.

1.) While I do not anticipate voter turnout and polling errors in the state of Ohio to be off by the 2 1/2 points it would need to be to give Romney the state. However, it is very common with elections with this type of volatile numbers for poll data to be off around one and a half to two percentage points in either direction, due to dramatically higher voter turnout then expected from one party over the other. Even if increased republican turnout were to only close the gap by a mere one percentage point there then this could be significant.

2.) Two of the state polls in Ohio yesterday were showing between 4-6 percent of the Ohio population is still either undecided or could easily change their mind. While it is true that undecided voters generally strongly favor the challenger it is just not safe to include these past voter trends into projections of the future. It was for this reason alone that some prognosticators predicted Kerry to defeat Bush in 2004, despite the consensus of the polls showing Bush hanging onto a small lead. However, things ended up going the opposite of expected and polling showed that Bush ended up getting over half of the remaining undecideds. One factor that can be looked at in projecting which way undecided voters will go is the approval rating of the incumbent. Generally, one needs to have at least a 49% approval rating to have a reasonable chance of winning a second term. On election day in 2004 Bush was sitting right at 50%. Right now Obama's approval rating sits right on the danger line with an average rating of 48.6. Looking at the above numbers I do not think it is unreasonable to conclude that late deciders will at least slightly favor Romney. Let's assume once again for the sake of argument that Romney gains about one percentage point among these voters.
Obama's Approval Rating on RCP

RCP Average	10/15 - 10/26	--	48.6	47.9	+0.7
Rasmussen Reports	10/24 - 10/26	1500 LV	47	52	-5
Gallup	10/23 - 10/25	1500 A	48	47	+1
ABC News/Wash Post	10/22 - 10/25	1382 LV	49	49	Tie
Associated Press/GfK	10/19 - 10/23	839 LV	49	49	Tie
CBS News	10/17 - 10/20	1383 A	49	42	+7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	10/17 - 10/20	1000 RV	49	48	+1
Politico/GWU/Battleground	10/15 - 10/18	1000 LV	49	48	+1

3.) Already we have a dead heat if both of the above things were to take place. Now instead of Romney having to gain over two percentage points in the next week and a half he would only need to gain around a half of one percent in the next week to give him a favorable chance at pulling out Ohio.

Now the disclaimers. I am not saying that Romney will or will not gain one point with higher turnout then expected. However, it should be considered encouraging that two of the recent Ohio polls were showing a 7-8 point edge in democrats then republicans. Why is this good news? It is safe to say that republican voter turnout cannot be worse then these pollsters are showing in their lopsided enthusiasm-gap findings. Chances are very good that they will fair at least some better then these numbers indicate.

I am also not saying that undecided voters will go for Romney. The oddity of this election is that the challenger is in a close race against an incumbent despite the fact that he has pretty dismal favorable numbers compared to past challengers.

It is important to understand that a Ohio victory for Romney does not give him the election, while it almost certainly would for Obama. Rommey will almost definitely need Colorado to win on election day and that state is a virtual tie using my formula. Then Romney would have to win Virginia and Florida to ensure victory.

Predictions 10/26/2012

Ominous signs for Mr. Romney and it could not have came at a worse time. In some states we are beginning to even see some signs of a race that is not only being won by Obama, but a race that is now trending his way. While nothing changed in the electoral count, the blue numbers in the margin column (Note: Blue numbers in the change column indicates it has gone towards Obama and red numbers in this column indicates a change favoring Romney) will tell the story. While some of the numbers were not that bad in and of itself, the source of the number is the bad sign. When you have ARG and Purple Strategies giving the numbers they are, it spells some trouble. A couple of the polls that were showing great numbers for Obama that was being docked as an outlier poll can either no longer be treated this way or have had the margin they were docked decreased. The cause of this shift is unknown and may never be. If it is a slight bounce from the last debate then look for these numbers to get worse for Romney in the days to come as clearer trend lines are drawn. Wisconsin was the only state that showed some positive news for the Romney camp, but that is only due to one isolated poll. If the election were held today I am about 75% sure that Obama would win a second term.

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	50%	0.20	0.20
Florida	Romney	29	60%	1.15	0.85
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	65% 60%	1.70 1.20	0.50 0.70
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	2.20	0.30
Virginia	Romney	13	55%	0.75	0.15
Wisconsin*	Obama	10	65%	1.90	0.30
Leaning States
Nevada*	Obama	6	80%		0%
Leaning States	Obama	6	70-85%		0
	Romney	0	70-85%		0
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	191	90% +		0
Total	Obama	249			0
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%		0
Projected Finish	Obama	281			0
	Romney	257			0
Popular Vote	Obama	0.80			0.10

Predictions 10/25/2012

These predictions are not including any polls posted past 11:00 AM EST. Due to the lack of polling data the last couple days you will not see very many changes. However, I am planning on revising these same predictions tonight after all of today's polls are in. The big movement comes in Hew Hampshire where things are once again in a dead heat. This is largely due to further polling which made the UNH poll a further outlier. Despite the three polls in Ohio, not much has really happened there. The popular vote remains slightly in Obama's favor according to our formula, which weighs the state polling more heavily. The popular vote polling is close enough that if we seen a dead heat in states like Ohio then Romney would immediately pull ahead by over a point nationally as well.

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	55%	0.40	0.00
Florida	Romney	29	65%	2.00	0.00
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	60% 55%	1.20 0.50	0.00 1.00
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	1.90	0.10
Virginia	Romney	13	55%	0.90	0.00
Wisconsin*	Obama	10	65%	2.20	0.00
Leaning States
Nevada*	Obama	6	80%		0%
Leaning States	Obama	6	70-85%		0
	Romney	0	70-85%		0
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	191	90% +		0
Total	Obama	249			0
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%		0
Projected Finish	Obama	281			0
	Romney	257			0
Popular Vote	Obama	0.70			0.20

Polls are Stabalizing

You've heard the old expression if you don't like the weather then hold on and it will change? Well, this could be said in the polling field as well. Despite the lack of extensive polls that have been done recently we do have ample information to conclude that we have gone through a stabilizing point in this election cycle. The popular vote polls as of a week ago had two outliers from opposite sides...Gallup showing Romney by 7 and IBD/TIPP showing Obama by 6. Now the Gallup poll has retreated to Romney by 3 and IBD/TIPP now shows Obama by 3. Despite the three polls from Ohio my formula remains basically the same, as it now shows Obama by 1.9 rather then 1.8. Nevada is still in the same classification and confidence level. Now let us consider what this means for the race as a whole?

1.) Despite several media talking heads insisting Obama would receive a bounce from debate number 2, he has not. Despite some anticipating some swings after this last debate...preliminary evidence does not show this at all. In many ways the race has been fairly stable for the past week.

2.) Every time we think it is safe to conclude that Romney's momentum had ended...it shows some traces of life. Maybe it will work this way again as I once again think it is safe to conclude that Romney's momentum has stopped.

3.) If either candidate starts even a slight, yet consistent momentum then they could very well be the next President of the United States! Will this news of the leaked emails that shows an administration cover-up do it? Will Obama get a slight bounce from the third debate and turn it into steady momentum? Any little thing has the potential of deciding the election.

Are Pennsylvania and Michigan In Play?
In two words...Probably Not! They are still classified as safe for Obama, because there is no evidence to the contrary. I will say that Michigan is very tough to formulate, due to most of the polls being from un-reputable firms that have shown a lot of outliers, sometimes for both candidates.

The new democratic poll showing a tie in Michigan should be treated with great skepticisnm. Here is what I know about the poll. First, they have shown very good numbers for Romney throughout the entire election. In fact almost every single one of their polls have been outliers with little to no other evidence supporting a race even remotely as close as they indicate. At one point they had Romney up by 4. I also know that the creator of the poll is one outspoken man that goes around to professional projection sites to justify his findings and make sure everyone knows he stands behind it. While I am glad he stands behind his work I find it odd that he has the time to go all over the Internet bragging on his poll. However, they are also the first poll taken there for quite a while and are showing a three point bump for Romney compared to their previous findings. If other polls began to show similar numbers then it could change the classification in a hurry since half of the polls up there are being adjusted to the median of the average. My best advice for those excited or worried: Don't be! I would love some nation wide firms to do more polls up there as several of the local polls up there have been less then trustworthy, making my job rather difficult. EPIC-MRA has shown extreme outlier numbers for both candidates and others like this Baydoun/Foster poll and Mitchell Research has been very right leaning in their findings.

Pennsylvania has been basically the same place it has been for a while. A week or so ago Susquehanna did a poll showing Romney by 4 there, but it failed to meet the criteria set by Real Clear Politics for inclusion. As many of you know I will only include polls that meet their criteria.

In short...both of these states are showing Obama up by exactly 5 points according to our sideaprojections. This is still over a point away from being included in the leaning column for Obama.

A Popular Vote Poll With a Great Track Record
The ABC News/Washington Post poll has had great success for several elections now. The good news for poll watchers is that they are now doing what looks to be a daily tracking poll. I also find their findings to be much more reasonable then some of the others. They are currently showing Romney by 1.

New Projections Coming By Noon Tomorrow
Unless we have a lot of morning polls tomorrow then do not expect a lot of changes in the numbers. The biggest movement so far has been in New Hampshire.

Could Romney Win Popular Vote But Lose Election?

One of the peculiar things about this election is the seeming discrepancy between popular vote polling and state polling. Today's batch of polls especially was amazing to behold considering how they just do not match the state of the race and the state of the race according to their own polls. Take for instance a very reputable firm that has shown incredible accuracy in the past...Survey USA. Their most recent popular vote poll shows Romney by 3. Yet, this same firm shows Obama winning Ohio by 3 and the only recent poll showing Obama ahead in Florida by a narrow one point margin. If this was a problem with just one or two polls then we would have reason to be skeptical, but it is across the board. Rasmussen is now showing Romney by 4 in the popular vote and still losing Ohio by one point. It is practically impossible for Romney to be ahead by 3-4 points nationally and be losing Ohio, much less Florida. Could the national polls be right. There are many theories...

1.) The consensus of national polling could be right, which would mean something rather odd. The average of all the polls show approximately a one point lead for Romney and their have been occasions in which the deciding state which placed the candidate at the needed 270 EV was up to 2 points off from the popular vote margin. So in this election the deciding state that places either candidate in the winning column will likely mean Ohio. This means that their are numerous occasions in which this differential is up to two points. Recently we have been noticing this gap almost widening. In 2008 Colorado was the state that pushed Obama over the top and he won it by 8.5 but only won the popular vote by 7.3. Rarely has the discrepancy coincided with an election that was extremely close and as a result it has not mattered until 2000 that is. If you adjusted the national average by a mere two points then suddenly we have a case in which Obama is narrowly winning the popular vote and also winning Ohio by basically the same margin. In short Romney could be up by 1 point and end up losing the election due to the closeness of so many states and the narrow margin that Obama is holding onto in Ohio.

2.) That the state polls are biased but the popular vote polls are not. -OR- The Popular vote polls are biased, but the state polls are not. What is amazing is that both democrats and republicans seems to like this theory. Democrats point to the fact that many of the popular vote polls that are published have a known, proven republican bias. Republicans (Because they are the ones on the short end of the stick in the state polling) suddenly declare that the state polls must be biased. Their are a few major problems with this theory. First, how can the same poll be considered accurate in the popular vote, but biased in the state polls. Second, there are those terrible things called facts and track records. Historically, popular vote polls are not only more inaccurate then state polling, but more biased as well. Look at the chart below...

Two things strike me about this chart...

1.) The incredible accuracy of polling averages. They have been less then one point off from the end result on average over the past 10 elections.

2.) Over the past 10 elections that there has been a democrat bias 5 times and a republican bias 4 times. -AND- The bias has been less then one percent on average. Yet, with as good as these polls have been let us consider the same chart, but only with state polling averages. This depicts the third theory and one that I lean towards being the most reasonable and that is the state polling this election cycle will once again be the most accurate of the two types

A Night With Zingers But No Daggers

Who Won?
The one that convinced more voters of course. I know the media is caring only about who scored the most points. If you went according to that, then the president probably did. He was the one on the attack most of the night and he had to be. Romney played it safe, probably too safe in my opinion, and he could afford to. How many undecideds made up their mind tonight? If a large number did then that would likely spell trouble for Romney who was not trying to score a big win.  How many Undecideds did not even listen or watch the debate tonight? Here lies the key issue. If this small block of voters did not follow things tonight or stayed on the fence afterwords then this would probably spell serious trouble for Obama; considering the fact that fence riders historically favor the challenger more times then not. I could very easily make the case that Romney could have won tonight by default.

What Happened to the Truth?
Obama loves and supports Israel now? When did this start?
Romney is in favor of a timetable for troops being withdrawn from Afghanistan? What happened to you between last debate and this debate?
Obama says Al Queda's core has been decimated? Did something just happen over the past 24 hours that I never found out about? If it did then you might want to tell your generals on the ground that is of the mindset that Al Queda has been emboldened in the past few years.
Romney supports the actions taken in Egypt? Do people generally attack somebody on an issue for several months that they agree with them on?
As most of you know I am a conservative at my very core and have never been undecided in this election. However, when I hear lie after lie and flip flop after flip flop from both candidates I just cannot stomach it. Going back to my earlier question...Who won tonight? Definitely not the truth!

The State of the Race Post-Debates
We said coming into this debate that the pressure was clearly on Obama, considering the ongoing momentum that Romney has been riding. I felt like Obama would need not a win, but a dominant and huge victory. I do not think he quite got there. Does this mean that Romney will ride momentum to a victory. No one knows. What this likely will mean is that he will be going into the election in a dead heat. Obama was already the favored candidate on foreign policy by a 10-15 point margin. Is it really possible for him to gain anymore? I have my strong doubts. Is it possible that Romney gained a few points in that category? Very possible. However, I am of the mindset that most people will be voting based upon their pocketbooks on election day. Did this debate change their minds? I felt like Obama was probably effective at emphasizing nation building here at home. But, I also felt like the economic realities or the numbers that Romney shared always seems to help bring people back to reality. No one scored a knockout. No one made a big gaffe or blunder.Therefore, the race will probably follow the same basic trend going forward. If either candidate gets even a small bounce from this debate then that candidate will likely be the winner. That is how close this election is and that is how close I expect it to stay.

Expect Some Pro-Romney Polls Soon

Some polls have consistently shown betters news for each of the candidates. However, in a state like Ohio the average of all of the polls are not including data from Purple Strategies, ARG, and even Mason-Dixon. Romney needs to have these polls show positve data for him to have much of a chance. My guess is that we will begin to see a couple of these in the near future. Romney fans should not get too excited by good results here, they should expect them; considering the state of the race and what other mainline polls are showing. Remember, while many polls can be wrong, rarely will every single poll be wrong. In other words in a state like Ohio it should be troubling to Romney that the best result he can muster is a tie from any poll. I expect that to change if my assumption is correct on some of these polls popping up soon.

Predictions 10/22/201

Lots of varying polls, but plugged in all together, does not make much of a change on the numbers. We are starting a new feature for all of the toss-up states with adding a deficit column and tracking the change in deficit rather then confidence level. The projected finish has continued to be the same throughout the past 10 days, which I believe to be consistent with real voting trends and a strength of the formula which does not lend itself to dramatic day-to-day changes. The biggest change today came in New Hampshire for two reasons: The UNH outlier poll that showed Obama by 9 and a trending bonus for Obama that originally was removed due to conflicting trend lines. We also added our projected popular vote leader and deficit. Hope you enjoy these projections and the debate tonight. As always spread the word to other political enthusiasts about this site. We would love to have some more comments as well. Remember, anyone is welcome to add their questions and comments as anonymous if you do not want others to know who you are. Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	55%	0.40	0.40
Florida	Romney	29	65%	2.00	0.00
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	60% 55%	1.20 1.50	0.90 1.50
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	1.80	0.20
Virginia	Romney	13	55%	0.90	0.00
Wisconsin*	Obama	10	65%	2.20	0.00
Leaning States
Nevada*	Obama	6	80%		0%
Leaning States	Obama	6	70-85%		0
	Romney	0	70-85%		0
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	191	90% +		0
Total	Obama	249			0
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%		0
Projected Finish	Obama	281			0
	Romney	257			0
Popular Vote	Obama			0.90

Tonight Could be Romney's Night Unless...

In essence this debate ordinarily would mean the least of the three, but tonight with high numbers of undecideds it could potentially mean more. However, unless we have a knock out tonight then do not expect very many of them to decide since the first few debates have not done anything. I am convinced that while the topic of foreign policy generally favors an incumbent president; Obama will once again have more pressure on him tonight. Why?
1.) A perceived draw will not change the course of the race and probably offer no relief to numbers that keep showing a practically dead even race with the challenger gaining more.
2.) Obama cannot as easily deflect attacks against him with counter attacks. Since Romney does not have much of a foreign policy record so far, there are very little things that he can be attacked on.
3.) Obama is already firmly the favorite among voters when it comes to this issue. Regardless of how well Obama does tonight I do not expect much of a gain in this way. Yet, this is considered a weakness for Romney according to many voters. If he at least holds his own then this could really help.
Therefore, if Romney holds his own tonight and is at least perceived in that light. You would have to say he is the one that benefits the most. Remember undecided voters historically trend towards the challenger when they make up their mind at the last minute. So if undecided voters stay that way tonight then this is a victory in itself.

How could Obama come away as the overwhelming victor? Which is what he must do. Obama's perceived narrow victory in the last debate did nothing to chop away at the massive gains in which Romney made. He needs a big night! Here is how this could be accomplished...
1.) Romney makes an intelligence gaffe that portrays him as not ready, equipped, or knowledgeable enough to be commander in chief. This can also be done by Obama coming across as far more knowledgeable on most of the issues.
2.) Obama finds a sore spot in Romney's past statements and is able to make the entire debate about that one issue and thus repeatedly remind voters of it. Here is one example of something Obama could try and do this on...Romney wanting to increase defense funding more then the Pentagon has currently asked for. But, I do not think this strategy would work unless Romney makes a blunder on this the first time it is brought up.
3.) Obama finds a way to make most of the debate about how he got Osama Bin Ladin. He would likely have to get some help from the moderator on this one, because if he brings it up too many times when it is off subject this can turn into a negative. I still expect Obama to emphasize this tonight as much as he can.

The Wild card is Libya. This is an area that could potentially be dangerous for both candidates. I would call this a high risk, high reward subject especially for Romney. This will come up by the moderator, but the million dollar question is will Romney bring it up himself. If I had to make a guess I think Romney will try and mend the damage incurred last debate on this subject and press Obama as to why the story changed so dramatically. This is not necessarily a winnable strategy, but it has the potential of being damaging to Obama's perceived credibility on the issue.

Dealing with Outlier Polls

What is an outlier poll? Any poll that shows a dramatically different result then the consensus of all the other polls. This has often been one of the most difficult questions for prognosticators to answer and to be sure there are a wide range of approaches to the issue. Here are some of the most common ways:

1.) Do nothing since it will probably all averages out in the end. Therefore, they would just average that result with the others. The key problem I have with this system is not always are there outlier polls on both extremes, which means they don't just average out in the end.

2.) Just take away a predetermined number of points away from the poll. This begins to add a lot of potential bias to a formula. How do you determine how many points? Do you dock the same points every time? How is it fair to treat a reputable polling company with a long track record of reasonable results the same as a poll that has had a long shaky past of over polling one party. Just because both of these polls in the above scenario has outlier numbers does not mean that they should be considered the same way.

3.) Discarding outlier polls altogether. While this can be the most tempting solution; I find this answer to complicate matters all the more. Let's say for instance that a poll has had a long track record of biased or inaccurate results and they are showing a result way different then the others. By removing this poll you are offsetting bias with more bias from the other extreme. How then is it fair to draw trend lines incorporating a poll that was thrown out of the average. If you throw out this poll in one state for have outlier numbers how is it fair to keep this poll in another state for showing better numbers. The bottom line is if a poll has no relevance in one state it has no relevance in any other state.

As always consistency is the key. Whatever method that is used has to stay uniform regardless if it shows good news or bad news for your candidate. Using our system we have three different classifications of polling companies that were established before the campaign started and has never changed.

1. One group of polls are those that are reputable and has had a decent track record in the past of not showing overly biased numbers and having reasonably accurate numbers at the end. If one of these polls are within 4 points of the average they will must be weighed like they ordinarily would and not be considered an outlier. If however they are above four points from the average after including there results then you subtract this new average of all the polls from this one poll and divide this number by two. This is the amount that is then docked from the end result.

2. The second classification of polling are those that have had a more sketchy track record in the past and has also shown a consistent bias in past elections or consistently showing outlier numbers in all states in favor of one candidate in this election cycle. If one of these polls are within 3 points of the average they will be weighed like they ordinarily would and not be considered an outlier. But if there result is more then three points from the average. They are temporarily put aside while you calculate the average of the other polls from classification one (shown above) and then you once again subtract this adjusted average with this outlier poll and divide by two. This is the amount that is docked from the end result. The number docked is also known as the median number from the original poll result and the adjusted average of reputable firms.

3. The third classification of polls are very rare. They not only have a bad track record of past accuracy, but to complicate matters they can sometimes show outlier numbers for both candidates depending upon the state. If a poll is new and has bad reviews from both sides and has shown numbers outlier numbers from the norm on both sides then a new method is used. Their result is always put aside at first while all the other polls are averaged in and regardless of how close they are to the average their poll is subtracted from adjusted average and divided by two. The only poll that meets this criteria in this election cycle is Gravis Marketing.

Now let's give an examples of the end results of this system in a toss-up state like Iowa:
Rasmussen- TIED
PPP- Romney by 1
NBC-Obama by 8
We Ask America- Obama by 3
ARG- TIED
Original Average- Obama by 2
In this case the NBC poll is clearly an outlier and will be pushed aside for a moment while we adjust the numbers and average them together.
Rasmussen- Obama by 1
PPP-Romney by 2
We Ask America- Obama by 4
ARG- Obama by 1
New Average- Obama by 1
Now we subtract the NBS results of Obama by 8 with this average of Obama by 1. This makes 7 which is divided in half and makes 3 1/2. The original result of Obama by 8 becomes Obama by 4 1/2
The final polling average with this poll being included becomes Obama by 1.7. What this means is that the adjustment given to the NBC poll is changed every time a reputable firm comes out. So if the adjusted average moves more towards Romney then this NBC poll moves more towards Romney and vice versa. With the slight trending towards Romney the 1.7 margin gets reduced by .50 making the new final projection Obama by 1.2.

A similar thing happened today with the CBS/Quinnipiac poll showing Obama by 5. being poll poll is an outlier the average margin of victory only moved .3 in Obama's favor now with the Suffolk poll showing a Tied race look for even tighter margins by later today.

Predictions 10/20/2012

What a DAY! Lots of polls. Lots of conflicting polls. Lots of head scratching, humming, and did I mention confusion. Times like this is exactly why I am glad I use an unbiased formula rather then assumptions. Part of the volatility may be as a result of conflicting trend lines. In a perfect world this would not influence polling, but it is a proven fact, as much as anything can be proven when dealing with numerous polls with varying sets of methodology, that polls use trend lines to partially determine how heavy to weight each parties projected turn out. Here is the problem...Several of these states are showing conflicting trends. Therefore, polls are having to make an unusual amount of judgment calls. For example: Yesterday, various polls were showing some signs of a possible minute Obama bounce. We have seen large amounts of evidence over the past week that Romney's bounce had subsided, then we see signs of a slight bump for Obama in some trend lines, and then even stronger evidence over the past 30 hours of something that just does not make sense based upon several other polls...a continuation of the Romney bounce. We are now beginning to see rather substantial evidence from several reputable polls that Romney is doing better then what he was at the height of his first debate bounce. This is extremely good news for the Romney camp. However, the Obama camp can also point to some rays of hope in some of the very same states as other polls with more questionable track records are not only contradicting the continuation of the Romney momentum, but the exact opposite. You could ask 10 prognosticators whether the last 36 hours of polling have been good news or bad news for the candidates and will likely get an opinion based upon what trend lines they want to believe. To try and offset this possible bias I have decided to throw out trend line advantages in any state with at least some level of question. As soon as a a clearer picture is available then I will continue adding this into the formula.

So where does that leave the state of the race now? Pretty much exactly where it was before this mass of polling...a very tight race with uncertainties for both candidates. As a whole, Romney has clearly benefited more from the stretch. Numerous states such as: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio have tightened or in the case of New Hampshire has become an exact tie according to our formula. While several websites have placed this state in Romney's column it has not been quite enough to do this in our formula. As is the case in Colorado, I am continuing to give the original leader, (which in this case is the President) credit for the electoral votes in my final projection. While I am perfectly willing to change this final projection when the numbers dictate, my formula does not lend itself to lots of status changes. As a result there may be times that I will require additional evidence while the others make quick status changes and later have to go back and change them a day or two later.

Here are my projections in map form. Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States Projected Winner EV Confidence  Change Colorado Romney 9 TIE 0% Florida Romney 29 65% 0% Iowa* New Hampshire Obama Obama 6 4 65% TIE 20% 10% Ohio Obama 18 60% 5% Virginia Romney 13 60% 0% Wisconsin Obama 10 65% 0% Leaning States Nevada Obama 6 80% 0% Leaning States Obama 6 70-85% 6 Romney -- 70-85% -- Safe States Obama 237 90% + 0 Romney 206 90% + 0 Total Obama 243 6 Romney 206 Toss-Ups 89 50-65% 6 Projected Finish Obama 281 0 Romney 257 0

How much are they up by?
The Ohio margin of victory for Obama is now 1.6
The Florida margin of victory for Romney is now 2.0
The Iowa margin of victory for Obama is now 2.1
The Virginia margin of victory for Romney is now 0.9
The Wisconsin margin of victory for Obama is now 2.2

Predictions 10/19/2012

Sometimes a good day just doesn't show up in the score card. This was the case in these updated projectes as of noon. While there were several changes in my confidence levels and ultimatelty the margin in some of these states tilted more towards Obama, it was not quite enough to change any categories. Colorado is now a tie that you could just as easily flip a coin then to declare someone the leader there right now. Yet, I will place it still in Romney's camp just on the basis of him being the previous leader. To complicate matters there, some reputable firms are showing varying results. Ohio is still approximately a 2 point lead for Obama and thus it is a toss-up. The only significant changes was actually for Romney in that North Carolina is now out of leaning status and unless further shake ups arrive this should be considered a safe state for Romney. Despite a few requests for a status change in Pennslyvania being taken from Safe Obama to leaning Obama. I just cannot do it for reasons posted in my previous posts. I will say it is approximately a 4 point lead there for Obama and because I do not like to change states in and out of categories when they are on the edge I will await more evidence.

Thanks to those who have recently checked out our new blog and I trust you will book mark this site and spread the word to others. We seen a sharp increase in views and visitors over the past 24 hours. As always we welcome constructive comments and questions on here.

Here are my projections in map form. Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States Projected Winner EV Confidence  Change Colorado Romney 9 TIE 10% Florida Romney 29 65% 0% New Hampshire Obama 4 60% 0% Ohio Obama 18 65% 0% Virginia Romney 13 60% 5% Wisconsin* Obama 10 65% 5% Leaning States Iowa Obama 6 85% 10% Nevada* Obama 6 80% 0% Leaning States Obama 12 70-85% 0 Romney -- 70-85% -- Safe States Obama 237 90% + 0 Romney 206 90% + 15 Total Obama 249 0 Romney 206 Toss-Ups 83 50-65% 0 Projected Finish Obama 281 0 Romney 257 0

Polling Discrepancies

Gallup General Election Polls
No doubt everyone heard the news by no of the general election poll from gallup that reads Romney by 7 among likely voters. Three things to consider about this poll...
1.) They have a very suspect track record in the past and of greater importance is their reputation for having findings away from the norm. As easy as it would be to look at this poll and think that it must surely mean Romney is winning, there is just not enough evidence in one isolated poll to draw those conclusions. One must consider this poll as an outlier and wait patiently to see if other polls start to follow there trend. My guess based upon toady's Rasmussen tracking poll is that this poll means very little.

2.) Ordinarily, likely voter polls are far more accurate then registered voter polls. However, in this case gallup has a very sketchy model or screen they employ to discern likely voters.

3.) This is merely a general election tracking poll that compiles information aver a seven day window...it does not reflect substantial information on any given swing state and is mainly used for trending purposes. Generally these tracking polls that stretch there findings over this long of period tends to be very volatile and subject to dramatic swings. My best guess is that it will begun to retreat closer to the norm of an approximately dead even race nationally in the days to come.

4.) Those of you that love Rasmussen tracking needs to look no further then today's poll which shows it a tie. This is a two point swing overnight and can potentially be a sign that Obama is going to see a small jump from the past debate. Tomorrows poll will be the first one that is compiled entirely post debate. However, Romney did jump one point yesterday so it may be a little early to project much from this. It is a bad sign for a positive poll for a republican when Rasmussen (a reputatble poll with a slight republican bias as a whole) is 5-6 points different

Susquehanna Poll Showing Romney by 4 in Pennslyvania
Democrats step away from the cliff! Republicans stop your Romney inaugeration plans! This poll that is taken from the republican party is also an outlier that has not yet seen any verification from other polls that the race is truly dead locked in the Keystone state. Yes, other recent polls has shown some pretty dramatic movement towards Romney, but nothing like this. This poll has been fair in years past, but has also shown a 2-3 point republican lean. I know in this case that would still be tremendous news for the Romney columnm, except this is just one poll.

Using my formula...this effectively makes this about a 4 point race in Obama's favor still. Generally, I would take a state out of the safe column and move it to the Leaning Obama column when the margin hits 4 points. However, in this case I am going to withhold judgment until more data arrives. Since the over all adjusted average of polls show about a 4 1/2 point race without the outlers and gernally bad ones this adjusts this poll back to a razor thin margin for Obama. The next couple days will be crucial in making a decision here. Since polls like these are placed at the median point between the poll and the adjusted average of other polls. Any additional evidence that this is even a 2-3 point race will adjust this Susquehanna poll back towards Romney and can dramatically change the picture. Yet, the same is also true if a reputable firm shows this a 6-7 point race for Obama. I will not change the category a state is in just to make people feel good about the race.

Yesterday's Good Day for Obama
There was some fairly good news for Obama yeseterday, but when adding in these numbers it still does not alter the final projected numbers. The two NBC/WSJ/Marist polls has a couple thing against it. First, it showed outlier numbers that is not reflective by other reputable firms. Plus this poll has a pretty clear democrat bias in past elections. When reverting these numbers and plugging them into the states it was still not enough to change Wisconsin out of a toss-up that is projected to go towards Obama and Iowa is still in the leaning Obama column. The PPP democratic poll from Colorado does change things a little in that a very suspect lead for Romney became a literal tie in my projections.

Predictions 10/17/2012

The last couple days have not been very busy on the polling front so there was little reason to post an update on my predictions. However, we have seen some rather significant data today to change the status of two states. Nevada has moved from toss-up to a leaning Obama state due to two reputable polls showing a three point margin and a slight trending towards Obama. Wisconsin has moved from a leaning Obama to a toss-up due to a very good poll from Marquette University (great accuracy in past Wisconsin elections and was one of the very few that were very solid in the Wisconsin recall race) showing the race as within a half of one percent for Obama. This poll along with the trending towards Romney makes this only a .83 margin for Obama according to my formula. This poll will be welcome news in the Romney camp since this state has not been a part of his most plausible path to victory. (Winning Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) With Wisconsin in play this gives Romney some margin of erorr in the event he loses Ohio. Note: An asterick after a state signifies a change of category from the last predictions and as always EV stands for Electoral votes.
Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	60%	0%
Florida	Romney	29	65%	0%
New Hampshire	Obama	4	60%	0%
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	0%
Virginia	Romney	13	55%	0%
Wisconsin*	Obama	10	60%	10%
Leaning States
Iowa	Obama	6	75%	5%
Nevada*	Obama	6	80%	15%
North Carolina	Romney	15	80%	0%
Leaning States	Obama	12	70-85%	4
	Romney	15	70-85%	0
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +	0
	Romney	191	90% +	0
Total	Obama	249		4
	Romney	206
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%	4
Projected Finish	Obama	281		0
	Romney	257		0