Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Final 2016 Projections

My Final 2016 Projections have been formulated for the Presidential race and Senate contests.


Wednesday, January 27, 2016

New and Improved Website

I have officially got my 2016 election projections up and going. Only this time it has been moved to www.politicalprognosticator.com

This blog will no longer be used. Please bookmark this new address and spread the word. Thank you.

Monday, January 14, 2013

The Politics of Immigration Reform

The President has made it clear that one of his top priorities of 2013 is immigration reform and some democrats also insist that there will still be time left over for solving this issue even in the midst of gun control policies being debated and that thing called a budget that politicians in general have grown to despise. Now only time will tell which of these issues will really get tackled since the president has floated the idea of using executive privilege to temporarily ban assault weapons; that is until the court slaps his wrist a year or so from now for over-stepping his legal powers. Rest assured the President will tackle this issue and soon.

Like so many other issues that confront us as a country it seems that both parties are stuck in their ideological mud puddle. Let's be clear...If Republicans were to craft a bill tomorrow that had everything the president wanted, he would still veto it in order to make sure they were not the ones to get the credit for it. I fear the reverse of that is also true. If the President were to craft an immigration plan that had everything the republicans wanted, they would cry out against it as liberal and the next day make one that contained basically the same ideas. Both parties have been playing these types of games for years and in this case it is even more important, all because the politics of this issue rests in the hands of the fastest growing voter bloc in the country...the all-important Hispanic vote.

I am confident that enough republicans understand that too hard of line on immigration reform will mean more years of democrat control in the oval office. Continuing to alienate this large voting group does not seem to be a very good path forward for them. However, any bill that has too much of the president attached to it will mean they will still not get the credit.

To be honest, I have never agreed with what has been considered the conservative stances on this issue. Borrowing a trillion or more dollars from China in order to have the resources to round them all up, tax payer and non-tax payer alike, and deport them. However, I also no longer buy into the notion that somehow we can starve them all into self-deportation. I have never understood the moral logistics of treating children and youth, that are here on no fault of their own, the same as the parents.

I have also struggled with the lefts plan of handing them all a green card, several thousand dollars of borrowed money, a voter id card with the party affiliation spot reading democrat, and then a stern reprimand that says..."You really should not have done this."

I think the solution must lie somewhere in between and for what it’s worth I have actually agreed with some of the ideas that Obama has put out there for discussion. I do think for some of those which are currently here milking the system that they should be deported and ultimately the price of doing so will be far less than the free health care and money they are receiving. However, to those which are trying to benefit our economy through hard work and ingenuity, then an imposed fine and path to citizenship should be considered.

Regardless, of which way this debate goes, it ought to be very interesting. I anticipate both sides saying basically the same thing, but refusing to agree in order to avoid alienating their key supporters.

Friday, December 21, 2012

How Dare Wayne LaPierre...

How dare he? What in the world is he thinking? How could anyone have the audacity to challenge the mainstream Media's coverage of violence and crime? How could anyone muster the courage to call them out on their lies and hypocrisies? Everyone knows that the solution to school shootings is an assault weapons ban, because that is what the media has been pressing for years. Everyone knows that guns are evil. Well, they do find some obvious exceptions; like when they are used by the secret service to protect the President, the police when responding to a shooting in progress, armed security at professional sporting events. (after all the fans must be protected right?) Yet, Wayne LaPierre must surely be off his rocker now. He claims that guns must also be used to protect our children. Why, how dare he? He almost acts as if they are young, defenseless, and innocent. The Executive Vice President of the NRA also made some other insinuations. Can you believe that someone could possibly believe that young people's addiction to violent video games could lead to...(gasp) violence? Then to think that the media's glorification of Hollywood and Hollywood's obsession with violence could somehow be linked to a violence filled society. Then to accuse the media of silence on these "non-issues" right in front of them. Surely, this was an accidental oversight. They were covering more important things, like gun control. Because everyone knows that if you take away guns, you take away crime.

Enough sarcasm? Except the problem is, this is not sarcasm. This is the media's response to the NRA's press conference earlier today. Actually, their response was primarily focused on those which some how found their way into the event to protest; holding signs which accuses the NRA of the CT shooting and children dying. Because, they felt like protesters calling the NRA child killers was more newsworthy then the NRA's multi-million dollar investment to start a program offering school solutions to discourage these types of crimes from occurring in the future. This program was yawned at, because they have already successfully convinced the majority of American people, that the only solution is an assault weapons ban.

What is wrong with an assault weapons ban? Nothing, if there was actually a definition of assault weapons and a logical plan to enforce the law; without violating individual rights, that could be presented for debate. Yet, debate is exactly what the media wants. A debate that they can dictate and moderate. A debate that they can spin as being one-sided and one with only one obvious solution. The very term, "assault weapons",  was coincidentally formed by democrats several years ago on capitol hill. The term has never been defined and what constitutes a gun being placed in this classification is up to individual opinions. The media talks of them like they are clearly marked on the box which holds the gun. "WARNING- THIS IS AN ASSAULT WEAPON." So let us outline these problems in simplicity.

1.) Their is no such thing as an assault weapon. A 22 used to hunt squirrels can be used as a weapon which assaults another person, just like: knives, (primary murder weapon in countries that attempts to ban guns) box cutters, (only weapon used on 9-11) ball bats, and even toilet plungers. I can hear it now...The NTPA. (The National Toilet Plunger Association) Some have suggested that any semi-automatic gun should be classified in this category and thus banned. Here is the problem...The people that are suggesting such laws do not even know how guns are manufactured. Almost any hunting rifle can be easily turned into a semi-automatic and their is no way to stop this, without eliminating the Second Amendment. Are their some types of guns that are on the streets, which should not be there? Absolutely, but they must be clearly defined.

2.) Enforcement of such laws are nearly impossible to enforce, except after a violent crime has been committed. Let's take the shooting at Columbine for example. Their was already an "assault weapons ban" in the books and being "enforced" at the time of that terrible shooting. How quickly people forget that Bill Clinton signed such a law back in the 90s and that the law did nothing to cut down on gun related violence. In fact, up until this year, gun violence has been rapidly declining since the ban was repealed. Is their a need for better enforcement of gun laws? Absolutely, but the focus would have to be shifted to law enforcement. Solving questions like: How do we get guns out of the hands of the mentally handicapped? How do we stop the sales of some of these dangerous weapons?, without violating or restricting the lawful gun ownership of law-abiding citizens for self-defense and hunting. Let's not forget that what took place in CT broke almost every law in the book. The revolting act took place despite having clear laws banning guns from the school property, "assault weapons" banned in the state, and not to mention that old law about murder. New laws may be great and perfectly in order, but in a lawless society, laws will always be broken. I have become nauseated by this gullible notion that new laws will immediately stop that which has been outlawed.

The problem with this is that it takes the focus off of gun laws and onto enforcement and this is not what the gun blamers and media wants to talk about. Of course, the media gets to choose what they talk about and what the American people consider the news for the day. If they do not want want something discussed, then they stay silent. The American people in return will either never find out or think it was not really newsworthy. Since the shooting in Sandy Hook the prevailing story line has been that every rational person wants gun control and that this would immediately eliminate school shootings.

What I will never understand about this debate is that these types of shootings are always occurring at the very places in which guns are not allowed for any reason. The the movie theatre shooting took place in Aurora, CO and happened to be one of the few theatres that did not allow concealed weapons. In fact people have been speculating as to why the shooter did not target one of the six theatres closer to his home. I don't think it is a coincidence that all six of these happened to allow concealed carry. I also find it compelling that in states like Florida and Texas, which have legalized concealed weapons, that the crime rates are at much lower points today then at any time before the law was enacted.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Is the Sky Falling?

For those that may have been wondering if the sky had fallen above our home in PA and if that was the reason for the sudden hiatus from political blogging. No, I am just keenly aware of a few things.
1.) That I was in dire need of a break from this sort of thing. In the heat of an election season, especially Presidential ones, I spend a tremendous amount of my free time dissecting every aspect of an election, especially things involving numbers.
2.) It it also my firm belief that the vast majority of those which closely followed my blog was ready for a break from politics in general. While I may be privately following 2014 Senate races and prospective 2016 presidential candidates; Does anyone really care, except me?
3.) I also tend to believe the majority of those who followed my blog so closely during the election, was doing do with direct interest in what the numbers were saying about who the next president would be. People in general do not put much stock in political opinions from non-media talking heads that they do not know. However, I wish people would place less stock in media talking heads as they spin the news to tell you what they want you to believe and generally what you want to hear.
4.) The vast majority of my conservative readers are not going to like my political opinions, because I don't believe most of the conspiracy theories and I tend to feed my mind on current events that are actually happening. This differs from the popular, "The Sky is Falling" and "Obama is About Ready to... Overthrow the Government, close churches, make it illegal to pray, ban all guns, etc." mantras.

Now back to the original question..."Is the Sky Falling?"
To be sure, there is a lot to be discouraged over...
I.) One of the most hideous and violent shootings in our nations history just occurred, in which many of the victims were innocent young children. While so many people search for a motive and a simple fix, the reality is that these just cannot and do not exist. As long as we have sin and temptation we will have these types of crimes occurring. Some of the same people that insisted on kicking God out of our schools, court rooms, and government now ask the question, "Where is God?".
II.) That so many politicians believe that increasing guns laws is the answer to such violence. How so many people can be sucked into the concept that increasing gun laws are going to take guns out of the hands of criminals and that the problem lies in the weapon rather then the heart within the person operating that weapon.
III.) We could very soon be going over the fiscal cliff, because of a mixture of indifference, political games, and just plain stubbornness. I tend to think this is a natural byproduct of a two party system that believes we have two teams, rather then one. Each party must follow the party line and vote the way their party tells them. then if someone from the opposing party comes up with a brilliant plan that they personally agree with then they must vote against it, because it came from the wrong party.
IV.) That the most important republican taking part in these deliberations has been thrown under the bus by his own party, because he has the audacity to think that both parties are going to have to compromise in order to get a deal done. Then a person whom conservatives generally choose to trust more then God, none other then Rush Limbaugh himself, tells his party leaders to just let the taxes dramatically increase on everyone. Why? Because his taxes are going up regardless. So why does it matter to him if those in the lower and middle class endure it too? If he's not going to get his way, then why let anyone else get their way? Then, of course, he makes the mind boggling assertion that this will hurt Obama more. Not only do I (as well as polls) find this idea to be wrong, but I also find it disheartening that so many people think through the lens of politics first and country last.
V.) Finally, half of the country still finds the election results very painful and life altering. After all when someone from the opposing party wins it obviously means that this will be the last election we ever have, those from their very own party are going to roll over and allow him to become a dictator, that he must be the anti-Christ, that the election must have been rigged, and God was so surprised that He resigned or decided to move up His return to earth.

Why the Sky is Not Falling?
How soon we forget the past and fail to learn lessons from the past. How quickly we cast away our confidence in everyone and everything. How easy it is to think that everything wrong that happens, changes everything. Understanding these things would help us gain a clearer mindset when we look for reasons why the sky is not falling. As a pastor allow me to look at the Spiritual realm for a moment.
I. God knew before the foundations of time who would win the last election. He does not view elections like we do. Meaning that He does not put any stock in party affiliation or who the good guy is supposed to be or who many people think the bad guy is. While it is important to note that not everything which happens in elections are God ordained or even the perfect plan of God. Since when is our personal relationship with God affected or influenced by any politician? The next four years can bring the greatest spiritual growth we have ever seen, if we want it to.
II. Who created the sky? Who keeps the sky suspended above the earth? How is it that the sky falls? While these questions may in fact be applied literally and cause some encouragement. They can also be taken in a figurative sense. If the answer to all three questions go back to God then how can any crime, debt crises, or election change this? It can't!
III. Now let us look at this through the preferred lens of many...Good Versus Evil. What is it that makes someone good or evil?, or something good or evil? If we answer these questions through the test of its relationship or connection to God, as I would; Then how does any event or circumstance that does not altar that which is good or evil, change what truly is good or evil?
IV. In the event that the last one lost you, this one is down a similar line, yet simpler to understand. What is it that matters most about good or evil? The one that ultimately prevails in the end. If we really believe that God will, then the sky is not and will not ever fall.
V. There is something called cycles in life and this applies to politics as well. The easiest thing in the world to assume is that because something did not or is not going our way currently, then it will never go our way again. When Clinton won, republicans were convinced that they would never win again. When Bush won re-election, then democrats were saying they would never win again. Now...well we already know what the skeptics are saying. When a bad piece of legislation passes, then the easiest thing to assume is that it will always stand and things will never be different then they currently are. If the sky was falling every time something bad happened, then the sky would have fallen a long time ago.
VI. We have a choice as to whether or not we buy into the skeptics, antagonists, and doubters. Yourr family, friends, and acquaintances may be convinced their sky is falling, but we have the choice of looking up and realizing that it has not.

Now to sign off...A very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all of you!

 Your feedback matters greatly and may influence how often I post. I would love to start talking about future elections, but I still think some time is needed before we jump back into those areas.