|Toss-Up States||Projected Winner||EV||Confidence||Deficit||Change|
|Safe States||Obama||237||90% +||0|
Thursday, October 25, 2012
These predictions are not including any polls posted past 11:00 AM EST. Due to the lack of polling data the last couple days you will not see very many changes. However, I am planning on revising these same predictions tonight after all of today's polls are in. The big movement comes in Hew Hampshire where things are once again in a dead heat. This is largely due to further polling which made the UNH poll a further outlier. Despite the three polls in Ohio, not much has really happened there. The popular vote remains slightly in Obama's favor according to our formula, which weighs the state polling more heavily. The popular vote polling is close enough that if we seen a dead heat in states like Ohio then Romney would immediately pull ahead by over a point nationally as well.