Predictions 10/25/2012

These predictions are not including any polls posted past 11:00 AM EST. Due to the lack of polling data the last couple days you will not see very many changes. However, I am planning on revising these same predictions tonight after all of today's polls are in. The big movement comes in Hew Hampshire where things are once again in a dead heat. This is largely due to further polling which made the UNH poll a further outlier. Despite the three polls in Ohio, not much has really happened there. The popular vote remains slightly in Obama's favor according to our formula, which weighs the state polling more heavily. The popular vote polling is close enough that if we seen a dead heat in states like Ohio then Romney would immediately pull ahead by over a point nationally as well.

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	55%	0.40	0.00
Florida	Romney	29	65%	2.00	0.00
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	60% 55%	1.20 0.50	0.00 1.00
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	1.90	0.10
Virginia	Romney	13	55%	0.90	0.00
Wisconsin*	Obama	10	65%	2.20	0.00
Leaning States
Nevada*	Obama	6	80%		0%
Leaning States	Obama	6	70-85%		0
	Romney	0	70-85%		0
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	191	90% +		0
Total	Obama	249			0
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%		0
Projected Finish	Obama	281			0
	Romney	257			0
Popular Vote	Obama	0.70			0.20