So where does that leave the state of the race now? Pretty much exactly where it was before this mass of polling...a very tight race with uncertainties for both candidates. As a whole, Romney has clearly benefited more from the stretch. Numerous states such as: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio have tightened or in the case of New Hampshire has become an exact tie according to our formula. While several websites have placed this state in Romney's column it has not been quite enough to do this in our formula. As is the case in Colorado, I am continuing to give the original leader, (which in this case is the President) credit for the electoral votes in my final projection. While I am perfectly willing to change this final projection when the numbers dictate, my formula does not lend itself to lots of status changes. As a result there may be times that I will require additional evidence while the others make quick status changes and later have to go back and change them a day or two later.
Here are my projections in map form. Political Prognosticator Map
How much are they up by?
The Ohio margin of victory for Obama is now 1.6
The Florida margin of victory for Romney is now 2.0
The Iowa margin of victory for Obama is now 2.1
The Virginia margin of victory for Romney is now 0.9
The Wisconsin margin of victory for Obama is now 2.2