Saturday, October 20, 2012

Predictions 10/20/2012

What a DAY! Lots of polls. Lots of conflicting polls. Lots of head scratching, humming, and did I mention confusion. Times like this is exactly why I am glad I use an unbiased formula rather then assumptions. Part of the volatility may be as a result of conflicting trend lines. In a perfect world this would not influence polling, but it is a proven fact, as much as anything can be proven when dealing with numerous polls with varying sets of methodology, that polls use trend lines to partially determine how heavy to weight each parties projected turn out. Here is the problem...Several of these states are showing conflicting trends. Therefore, polls are having to make an unusual amount of judgment calls. For example: Yesterday, various polls were showing some signs of a possible minute Obama bounce. We have seen large amounts of evidence over the past week that Romney's bounce had subsided, then we see signs of a slight bump for Obama in some trend lines, and then even stronger evidence over the past 30 hours of something that just does not make sense based upon several other polls...a continuation of the Romney bounce. We are now beginning to see rather substantial evidence from several reputable polls that Romney is doing better then what he was at the height of his first debate bounce. This is extremely good news for the Romney camp. However, the Obama camp can also point to some rays of hope in some of the very same states as other polls with more questionable track records are not only contradicting the continuation of the Romney momentum, but the exact opposite. You could ask 10 prognosticators whether the last 36 hours of polling have been good news or bad news for the candidates and will likely get an opinion based upon what trend lines they want to believe. To try and offset this possible bias I have decided to throw out trend line advantages in any state with at least some level of question. As soon as a a clearer picture is available then I will continue adding this into the formula.

So where does that leave the state of the race now? Pretty much exactly where it was before this mass of polling...a very tight race with uncertainties for both candidates. As a whole, Romney has clearly benefited more from the stretch. Numerous states such as: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio have tightened or in the case of New Hampshire has become an exact tie according to our formula. While several websites have placed this state in Romney's column it has not been quite enough to do this in our formula. As is the case in Colorado, I am continuing to give the original leader, (which in this case is the President) credit for the electoral votes in my final projection. While I am perfectly willing to change this final projection when the numbers dictate, my formula does not lend itself to lots of status changes. As a result there may be times that I will require additional evidence while the others make quick status changes and later have to go back and change them a day or two later.
Here are my projections in map form. Political Prognosticator Map

Toss-Up States

Projected Winner



New Hampshire
Leaning States
Leaning StatesObama670-85%6
Safe StatesObama23790% +0
Romney20690% +0
Projected FinishObama2810

How much are they up by?
The Ohio margin of victory for Obama is now 1.6
The Florida margin of victory for Romney is now 2.0
The Iowa margin of victory for Obama is now 2.1
The Virginia margin of victory for Romney is now 0.9
The Wisconsin margin of victory for Obama is now 2.2

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