|Toss-Up States||Projected Winner||EV||Confidence||Deficit||Change|
|Safe States||Obama||237||90% +||0|
Monday, October 29, 2012
More movement in Obama's direction over the weekend and it has become rather clear that Obama likely seen some help from the last debate. North Carolina was not able to escape his bounce and can no longer be considered a safe state. We also have a truly unique situation as we have two states with identical ties according to our latest numbers. What is even more unique is that the RCP average is also a tie in these two states. We are crediting Romney with both of these states still, only due to him being the previous leader there. There is the potential of quite a bit of movement in the days to come and if things continue in this direction we could have Obama's electoral lead growing considerably as has happened with his popular vote margin of victory. However, we did see some good news for the Romney camp in Ohio as the state has returned under the two point margin and has actually seen some potential trending his way, but not enough to move the final projected poll numbers there. A reminder that some time the final week before an election can see quite a bit of movement as undecided voters determine their opinion and likely the fate of the presidency. This is still a close election in many ways so if you once again do not like my findings come back tomorrow and they could be better (or worse of course) Those of you interested in the Senate races will find some projections here in the days to come and obviously my final projections on election day will also have Senate races included as well.