Predictions 10/29/2012

More movement in Obama's direction over the weekend and it has become rather clear that Obama likely seen some help from the last debate. North Carolina was not able to escape his bounce and can no longer be considered a safe state. We also have a truly unique situation as we have two states with identical ties according to our latest numbers. What is even more unique is that the RCP average is also a tie in these two states. We are crediting Romney with both of these states still, only due to him being the previous leader there. There is the potential of quite a bit of movement in the days to come and if things continue in this direction we could have Obama's electoral lead growing considerably as has happened with his popular vote margin of victory. However, we did see some good news for the Romney camp in Ohio as the state has returned under the two point margin and has actually seen some potential trending his way, but not enough to move the final projected poll numbers there. A reminder that some time the final week before an election can see quite a bit of movement as undecided voters determine their opinion and likely the fate of the presidency. This is still a close election in many ways so if you once again do not like my findings come back tomorrow and they could be better (or worse of course) Those of you interested in the Senate races will find some projections here in the days to come and obviously my final projections on election day will also have Senate races included as well.

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Romney	9	50%	TIE	0.20
Florida	Romney	29	60%	1.15	0.00
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	65% 60%	1.70 1.50	0.00 0.30
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	1.80	0.40
Virginia	Romney	13	50%	TIE	0.75
Wisconsin	Obama	10	65%	1.90	0.00
Leaning States
Nevada	Obama	6	80%	2.6	0%
North Carolina*	Romney	10	80%	2.5	Status
Leaning States	Obama	6	70-85%		0
	Romney	10	70-85%		10
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	181	90% +		10
Total	Obama	249			0
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	83	50-65%		0
Projected Finish	Obama	281			0
	Romney	257			0
Popular Vote	Obama	1.20			0.40