Predictions 11/3/2012

This is the last predictions that I will give until my final projections are posted on election day. As you can see  the Obama bounce is making Romney's chances appear rather slim. If the election were held today I am about 80% confident of an Obama electoral victory. Wisconsin is now safe for Obama and Ohio is now leaning Obama. However, the last few days before an election can see dramatic changes and tightening.

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Obama	9	60%	1.10	0.10
Florida	Romney	29	60%	0.90	0.10
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	65% 60%	1.40 1.25	0.20 0.25
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	2.30	0.50
Virginia	Romney	13	50%	0.10	0.25
Leaning States
Nevada	Obama	6	80%	2.8	.20
North Carolina*	Romney	10	80%	3.6	0.00
Ohio Leaning States	Obama Obama	18 24	75% 70-85%	3.25	.95 8
	Romney	10	70-85%		0
Safe States	Obama	247	90% +		10
	Romney	181	90% +		10
Total	Obama	253			10
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	79	50-65%		-10
Projected Finish	Obama	290			0
	Romney	248			0
Popular Vote	Obama	1.40			0.00