Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election 2012 Is Behind Us

I would like to start by taking a moment to express my gratitude for all of those who have been following our blog and for the hundred plus that viewed our blog and final predictions last night alone. I can say with sincerity...Unfortunately, I was mostly right. I was asked if I cared more about being right or my candidate winning. This blog and my projections have never been about me becoming some type of famous prognosticator, but always about what my formula was showing about the race as a whole. I would be far happier right now if I would have been way off, but it is easier going into an election having a very good idea of what is going to happen. I know in my heart that this is one of the reasons why I invest the time and energy into working these numbers, because I just have to have some type of knowledge heading into the election as to which way things will go. I also love politics, (However, I am ready for a break) love math, and love making predictions. I continue to have a tremendous amount of confidence in what I do and the formula I use. It appears like I may miss Florida, but that will be the only state I missed of the 50. My margins were very close in several states and regretfully lacking in others. I will show the score card tomorrow on how I did compared to the others. It appears I was able to get my margins closer then the RCP Average, but played second fiddle to Nate Silver in several states. Congratulations go to him for all of his incredible hard work and accurate predictions. I do not always agree with him and take pleasure critiquing his methods and formulas, but he knows what he is doing.

I will have a more complex recap tomorrow, but it does appear that the Hispanics were the difference in this election. They not only came out in the largest numbers ever, but were more democrat then ever before as well. This was not only the problem of 2012, but will continue to haunt republicans going forward unless decisive action is taken.

The other story line is the absence of a strong republican base support. For the last couple elections we have been fed the nonsense that it takes a moderate or liberal republican to win, but the evidence is once again clear; It takes someone that can do what Obama has done for two elections now... get his base to vote. Early indicators I am looking at tells me that Evangelicals once again failed to vote as they did in the Bush elections. I have felt for many years that Evangelicals care more about a candidate giving lip service to Christianity then what we do the preservation of our Constitution. Some people act as if they are voting on a pastor, rather than a president.

By the way, my incumbent democratic congressman Mark Critz, went down in a stunning defeat. Preliminary numbers also show that republicans will actually gain some more seats in the House. I have to extend an olive branch to my fellow conservatives who are deep in despair.

Good night. Or shall I say good morning.

No comments:

Post a Comment