Friday, November 2, 2012

Is This Election Over?

Absolutely not, just because the fat lady is warning up does not mean that she will have to sing. But, make no mistake she is warming up and anticipating having to sing the farewell tune to Romney's campaign very soon. Some of you know that after the final debate I was so discouraged that I said that Romney had just lost the election. I'm afraid I should have trusted my gut instincts better, because a mixture of time and hearing other conservatives think that Romney had done great had me thinking that maybe it was not as bad as I thought. As I pore over polling data and trend lines I can clearly see that the final debate was what clearly started this uptick for Obama in the polls. Here is the problem...this was the most crucial week for Romney to finish what he has started a month ago and that was a massive, unprecedented blast of momentum that kept going and going, all because of one debate. This was the week that those undecideds were supposed to realize they would have to cover their nose and vote for Romney. This was the week that the last bang wagon jumpers were going to hop on and a narrow race that was slightly favoring Obama was going to turn into a narrow race favoring Romney. Now Romney must fight to convince his base that this race is not over and he still has a chance. The truth is that barring an incredible gaffe from Obama's team or a collapse from nearly every pollster, (which they would blame on hurricane Sandy) even conservative leaning ones, this race is beginning to slip out of hand. Even Rasmussen tracking now has a tie, which is a four point swing from what they were reporting before the final debate.

Before, the strategy for Romney was simple: Hang onto the states you are leading in and just win Ohio. Now things have gotten much more complicated. Colorado is going for Obama and is also trending his way in nearly every poll. Virginia is dead even and Florida could likely be a draw by the time that Tuesday rolls around. Now is the time for Romney to think about his last act of desperation and it had better be good. This week is so critical because of those fence riders, but it looks like they will be making their ultimate decision during an Obama high.

What is even more amazing then Romney's 2-3 week surge is the fact that I am beginning to see signs that come election day if things stay on this path, the election may not even be close. One day could change all of that pessimism, but the data is looking bad. I keep waiting for some signs that what appears to be happening was not happening, but what I keep getting is more signs that what I am seeing is not evidence that I need glasses but a tissue.

Note: It's a good thing that I can take this post down tomorrow if things change. Then you will never have any proof that I really said these things 4 days before the election.


  1. I took a screenshot so I have proof. :)


  2. Tim, I was going to post the same thing.