Was David Petraeus Blackmailed?

There have been some very interesting developments in the David Petraeus affair and resignation as director of the C.I.A., which may have some political implications. I have thus far held back too much interest in the case, as just another unfortunate sex scandal involving one of our leaders. However, today it is being reported that the FBI was notified and began investigating the Petraeus situation in the middle of the summer. Therefore, this creates a lot of interesting questions that can hopefully be answered in the days and weeks to come. 

One of the important pieces to this puzzle is how this is, if at all, related to the Libya scandal that was largely shoved under the rug due to its political implications. One must remember that Petraeus was involved in pushing the idea that what took place on September 11 was just a spontaneous demonstration that had terrible consequences, denying that there was any organized terrorist attack. Now we know that the C.I.A. also seemed to have information regarding security failures and terrorist involvement. Just two days after the attack on our Benghazi consulate, representatives of the FBI and NCTC gave Capitol Hill briefings in which they said the evidence supported an al-Qaida or al-Qaida-affiliated attack. 

Yet, up to this point democrats have been adamantly opposed to any further investigation of a possible cover-up in the Benghazi attack as political games. Now democrats have changed their minds with these latest developments coming to light. Remember, Petraeus was due to testify about the Benghazi attack this week, right before he admitted to an extramarital affair and resigned his post. Both parties are rightfully angry about not being notified that the FBI was investigating the C.I.A. director as they were obligated by law to know the moment this was revealed in the middle of the summer. So now it appears that both the House and Senate intelligence committees are wanting to know answers about not only the affair with the possibility of security breaches that may have occurred, but has now pledged to investigate if there was any connection to his false assertions following the attack.

• We now know that Eric Holder was informed by email of this Petraeus investigation months ago, but thus far has been refusing to comment as to if he read the emails and informed the Obama administration of it. Why the sudden silence from Eric Holder?
• Was this affair being kept silent, contrary to law, because of the upcoming election?
• Is it just a coincidence that all of this came to light a couple days after the election?
• Did David Petraeus resign a couple days before the Congressional hearings to avoid testifying about the Benghazi attack? He knew that his affair had been uncovered by the FBI weeks ago.
• Was there a cover-up of the Petraeus investigation to cover-up the Benghazi investigation? If so then we have an investigation that will go down in our history books and could have the FBI, C.I.A., justice department, and the Obama administration all fidgeting at the same time.
• John Edgar Hoover the first director of the FBI and served in that capacity for 48 years was proven to have used sex scandals as black mail and leverage for the government on numerous occasions. Could we have another case of the government black mailing in order to keep information from coming out?

Final Election and Projection Review

A Landslide That Was Not a Landslide
Barring a swift reverse in Florida following what is set up to be a mandatory recount; Obama's electoral vote count will end up at 332. Yet, the popular vote sits at the slimmest of margins...1.2. This total is likely to grow slightly when the final results have been certified, but it will likely be no greater then a 1.5 margin. He has only received 50.3 percent of the vote, yet the liberal media talking heads are talking about Obama getting a mandate. However, this is what we all know about our President...He always thinks he has a mandate and will continue to govern accordingly. We are now seeing a real possibility of the electoral system being totally different then the popular vote margin as it has been for three out of the last four elections.

The gridlock will continue in Washington. Americans as a whole still want Obamacare repealed, but now our health care system will forever be run by the government. Americans by a rather overwhelming margin do not favor raising taxes on the job creators to pay down the debt, yet this will be the next item that Obama has vowed to pursue. Evidently having the largest tax rate on Corporations in the world is not enough and republicans will continue to be coined as the party for the rich for opposing new taxes on anyone right now.

Hispanics and Evangelicals...One Group Votes and the Other...
The two biggest story lines of this election was the record Hispanic turnout and the overwhelming margin in which they voted for Obama. Romney did much worse with this voting block then even McCain and this will continue to haunt the GOP in future elections until we realize this. I expected the African American vote to once again be large and it was, but I was hoping against all hopes that Hispanics would turn out in similar numbers as 2008 and that Romney could at least get a reasonable percentage. If this would have happened...we would be saying president elect Romney.

The other story line is the lack of Evangelical turnout. This was indicated not only in exit polls, but also in the  real vote. Hamilton County in Ohio is considered by some to be the Evangelical hub of the country and also coincides with the city of Cincinnati. This is a county that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004 by at least five points both times. The Obama team made it very clear that they were not expecting another five point victory in this county and that all they could hope for is a draw. With all the votes in...Obama once again won this county by five points. When Evangelicals decide to come out in full force it always shows up in this county and clearly the exit polls were right about this voting block once again staying home.

Romney Better then McCain?
The margin was much closer, but that was due to Obama getting around 10 million less votes then 2008. Actually, more people voted for McCain in 2008 then voted for Romney in 2012 by around 2 millions voters when it is all said and done probably. So much for the logic that Romney would do a better job at getting the base out to vote. The republican party is going to have to stop having 7-10 candidates, most of which agree on almost everything, fighting among themselves in primary season. In the process we end up splitting the base vote and having a moderate forced down our throats. The bottom line: A moderate to liberal republican will likely never win a presidential election unless they appeal to the base of the party in the process. Perhaps, people could not get past Romney's Mormomism and the daily flip flops on the issues. Whatever the issue...it is over now for another three years.

My Erroneous Statement about GOP House Gains
Last night I said it appeared that the Republicans would end up gaining some seats in the House and that is not the case whatsoever. I did a quick glance and that is how it appeared at the time. Sorry...The final results seem to indicate a democrat gain of six seats.

The Polls and My Projections
When I started this blog I received a lot of heat for what I was doing among my fellow conservatives. I lost track of how many times I heard...Don't I know that polls mean nothing? Don't I know that polls no longer work? Don't I know that polls have a tremendous liberal bias? Don't I know that Rasmussen (when they are showing positive results) is the only poll that can be trusted? Let me look at these statements in retrospect now that another election has it the books.

• "Don't I know that polls mean nothing?" I have continued to argue that while any one poll means very little the consensus of the polls are very good indicators of the final outcome as it was in this election. If polls do not mean anything then they sure do a really great job guessing every election season. This is what I always heard when someone was making the case of why Romney was going to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Minnesota. How could I be 90% confident in these states, because don't I know the polls don't mean anything there, well except for the one showing Romney tied or in the lead. I kept insisting that the poll margins in these states and the past track record told me there was virtually no possible way of winning these states.
• "Don't I know that polls no longer work?" At times I began to wonder if due to the changing demographics of this country if we had seen the end incredible accuracy in polls. Yet, I refused to change my formula or change the numbers when I disagreed with their system as tempting as what it was. Why? Polls have to prove that they can no longer gauge the views of the American people and they once again proved contrary. Actually, an argument could be made that polls are doing better then they ever have. I also was impressed with the ways polls were changing in order to deal with changing voter behavior.
• "Don't I know that polls have a tremendous liberal bias?" The problem is that this has never been the case. Are there years that a party has been biased in the polling? Absolutely. In 2008 polls were biased against Obama and the democrats and it appears like this is going to be the case again in 2012. People forget that regardless of the personal views of the pollster they continue to exist only if they show a level of accuracy.
•  "Don't I know that Rasmussen is the only poll that can be trusted?" Their state polls were once again clearly biased in favor of republicans in 2012. In fact their polls will continue to get more scrutiny in coming years unless they change their system that lends itself to be extremely republican biased. However, their margins in which they were off were still not that bad in several swing states. 

I learned a long time ago to never trust my feelings or my instincts when it comes to projecting elections. When I started this formula in 2004 I was not really for sure that I trusted it fully, because it sometimes diverged heavily from the RCP average I used to rely on exclusively. While it always receives some slight tweaking in between elections it is the same basic system that was so accurate in 2004. With the 50 out of 51 that have been called I was right on the winner of all of them, but I assume that following the Florida recount that I will miss this one. Here are some of my best and worst predictions...

Best Predictions

• My final popular vote projection was 1.4. Just as I was about to say that the margin was currently 1.2 and likely to grow a little more, it jumped all the way to 2.2. I was going to say that I beat out all of the major prognosticators on this, but Nate Silver is likely to get me on this too. (he went with 2.5) However, this projection was far closer then the RCP final of Obama by 0.7 and the election projection site that went with 0.5.
• Ohio is one state that I can feel very good about projection wise. I said 2.5 which was lower then the RCP of 2.9 and far lower then Nate Silver at 3.7. The final margin for Obama was 1.9.
• My final margin was closer then the RCP in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. Among the toss-up states I was closer in four out of the five states we diverged in.

Worst Predictions

• My numbers varied dramatically in Iowa and I was the one off. I continued to show the race as very close at the end and missed it badly in this case. I was also off by a reasonable margin in Wisconsin. I have theories as to why this occurred and will do some hypotheticals some time to see if this was the case.
• My final margin was also off by a greater margin then the RCP in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but our margins were very similar in both states.
• I missed two Senate races...one in North Dakota and the other in Montana. I confess that I did not follow these races very closely until the end, which made it very difficult to draw conclusions from the limited polling in these states.

This Blog Going Forward

The same moment this blog was starting to take off my projections turned more sour for Romney and I immediately lost a lot of traffic and heard various ones tell me that polls and my projections were a massive waste of time. I knew coming into this that many of my fellow conservatives would not appreciate this line of work regardless of how accurate I came. Sadly, many conservatives would rather listen to Fox News and hear all of their talking heads predict a republican landslide every four years then read what the facts are showing. I am also keenly aware that very few people reading about polls and polling methodologies, and state and poll trend lines Therefore, I am weighing these things out in my mind going forward. I will continue to post my predictions every general election for those who would rather look at the laws of probability rather then conspiracy theories. As to what I will do with this blog in between elections, that will depend upon my traffic. My latest prediction is that very, very few people will read this entire post. I will try and have at least one post every few days and do have some ideas that I think will be entertaining to many, even my democrat readers. However, if very few are checking this out then it is just not worth the time and energy. Thank you once again for the large group of people who joined us last night it was a little joy and encouragement  in the midst of mourning.

Election 2012 Is Behind Us

I would like to start by taking a moment to express my gratitude for all of those who have been following our blog and for the hundred plus that viewed our blog and final predictions last night alone. I can say with sincerity...Unfortunately, I was mostly right. I was asked if I cared more about being right or my candidate winning. This blog and my projections have never been about me becoming some type of famous prognosticator, but always about what my formula was showing about the race as a whole. I would be far happier right now if I would have been way off, but it is easier going into an election having a very good idea of what is going to happen. I know in my heart that this is one of the reasons why I invest the time and energy into working these numbers, because I just have to have some type of knowledge heading into the election as to which way things will go. I also love politics, (However, I am ready for a break) love math, and love making predictions. I continue to have a tremendous amount of confidence in what I do and the formula I use. It appears like I may miss Florida, but that will be the only state I missed of the 50. My margins were very close in several states and regretfully lacking in others. I will show the score card tomorrow on how I did compared to the others. It appears I was able to get my margins closer then the RCP Average, but played second fiddle to Nate Silver in several states. Congratulations go to him for all of his incredible hard work and accurate predictions. I do not always agree with him and take pleasure critiquing his methods and formulas, but he knows what he is doing.

I will have a more complex recap tomorrow, but it does appear that the Hispanics were the difference in this election. They not only came out in the largest numbers ever, but were more democrat then ever before as well. This was not only the problem of 2012, but will continue to haunt republicans going forward unless decisive action is taken.

The other story line is the absence of a strong republican base support. For the last couple elections we have been fed the nonsense that it takes a moderate or liberal republican to win, but the evidence is once again clear; It takes someone that can do what Obama has done for two elections now... get his base to vote. Early indicators I am looking at tells me that Evangelicals once again failed to vote as they did in the Bush elections. I have felt for many years that Evangelicals care more about a candidate giving lip service to Christianity then what we do the preservation of our Constitution. Some people act as if they are voting on a pastor, rather than a president.

By the way, my incumbent democratic congressman Mark Critz, went down in a stunning defeat. Preliminary numbers also show that republicans will actually gain some more seats in the House. I have to extend an olive branch to my fellow conservatives who are deep in despair.

Good night. Or shall I say good morning.

Political Prognosticator VS Professional Prognosticators

KEY STATES	Political Prognosticator	Nate Silver-538.com	RealClearPolitics Avg.
Colorado	Obama-1.5	Obama-2.6	Obama-1.5
Florida	Romney-0.8	Obama-0.2	Romney-1.5
Iowa	Obama-1.5	Obama-3.4	Obama-2.4
Michigan	Obama-4.25	Obama-7.3	Obama-4.0
Nevada	Obama-3.3	Obama-4.7	Obama-2.8
New Hampshire	Obama-2.5	Obama-3.7	Obama-2.0
North Carolina	Romney-3.3	Romney-1.6	Romney-3.0
Ohio	Obama-2.5	Obama-3.7	Obama-2.9
Pennslyvania	Obama-3.6	Obama-6.1	Obama-3.8
Virginia	Obama-0.7	Obama-2.2	Obama-0.3
Wisconsin	Obama-3.1	Obama-5.7	Obama-4.2
Electoral Count	Obama- 303-225	Obama- 332-196	Obama- 303-225
Popular Vote	Obama-1.4	Obama-2.5	Obama-0.7

Follow all the action tonight as well as our final picks in spreadsheet form with open spaces for the actual winners as they are called can do so here:  Follow Along Printable Spreadsheet

Those wishing to view this page in spreadsheet (printable) form can do so here; includes pollsunskewed as well: Comparison Chart

Those wishing to view my projections in map form can do so here. Final Projections Map (No Toss-Up)


LIVE BLOGGING TONIGHT...My impressions, predictions, and thoughts as the action happens. Starting at 7:30 PM and continuing until the race is called. (or not called) I will disect the numbers and exit polls as they come in. Just keep the Live Blog Page up and refresh every little while.

Final 2012 Election Projections (11:46 AM)

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Margin	Confidence
Colorado	Obama	9	1.5	60%
Florida	Romney	29	0.75	60%
Iowa	Obama	6	1.5	65%
New Hampshire	Obama	4	2.5	65%
Ohio	Obama	18	2.5	65%
Virginia	Obama	13	0.7	55%
Leaning States
Michigan	Obama	16	4.25	85%
Nevada	Obama	6	3.3	80%
North Carolina	Romney	10	3.3	80%
Pennslyvania	Obama	20	3.6	80%
Wisconsin	Obama	10	3.1	80%
Safe States
Alabama	Romney	9		100%
Alaska	Romney	3		100%
Arizona	Romney	11		95%
Arkansas	Romney	6		100%
California	Obama	55		100%
Connecticut	Obama	7		100%
Delaware	Obama	3		100%
D.C.		3		100%
Georgia	Romney	16		100%
Hawaii	Obama	4		100%
Idaho	Romney	4		100%
Illinois	Obama	20		100%
Indiana	Romney	11		95%
Kansas	Romney	6		100%
Kentucky	Romney	8		100%
Louisiana	Romney	8		100%
Maine	Obama	4		3-100/1-80%
Maryland	Obama	10		100%
Massachusetts	Obama	11		100%
Minnesota	Obama	10		90%
Mississippi	Romney	6		100%
Missouri	Romney	10		95%
Montana	Romney	3		95%
Nebraska	Romney	5		4-100/1-95%
New Jersey	Obama	14		100%
New Mexico	Obama	5		100%
New York	Obama	29		100%
North Dakota	Romney	3		100%
Oklahoma	Romney	7		100%
Oregon	Obama	7		95%
Rhode Island	Obama	4		100%
South Carolina	Romney	9		100%
South Dakota	Romney	3		100%
Tennessee	Romney	11		100%
Texas	Romney	38		100%
Utah	Romney	6		100%
Vermont	Obama	3		100%
Washington	Obama	12		100%
West Virginia	Romney	5		100%
Wyoming	Romney	3		100%
Total Safe States	Obama	201
Total Safe States	Romney	191
Total Leaning	Obama	52
Total Leaning	Romney	10
Toss-Up	Obama/Romney	79
Projected Finish	Obama	303		80%-E. Win
Projected Finish	Romney	235
Popular Vote	Obama	49.4	1.4	65%-P. Win
	Romney	48
SENATE Toss-Up	*- Party Change
Indiana-R	Donnelly*		1.5	60%
Montana-D	Rehberg*		1	55%
Virginia-D	Kaine		2.05	65%
Wisconsin-D	Baldwin		1.4	60%
Senate Leading
Arizona-R	Flake		5.3	90%
Connecticut-D	Murphy		6.2	95%
Massachusetts-R	Warren*		3.95	85%
Missouri-D	McCaskill		3.45	80%
Nevada -R	Heller		4.25	85%
North Dakota-D	Berg*		5.5	90%
Ohio-D	Brown		3.6	80%
Pennslyvania-D	Casey		3.9	80%
Safe or Not up	Democrat	45
Safe or Not up	Republican	43
Senate Leading	Democrat	5
Senate Leading	Republican	3
Toss-Up	Dem/Rep	4
Projected Finish	Democrats	53
	Republicans	47
SENATE CONTROL	Democrats			80%
HOUSE CONTROL	Republicans			90%

What to Watch for in Ohio

It all comes down to one county for both of these candidates. However, it is a different county for each of them to closely watch.

Cuyohoga County:
This is the democrats stronghold and is located in the Cleveland area. Strong voter turnout in this county would make Obama a huge favorite. This of course assumes that Obama wins this county by at least 35%. Voter turnout of at least 600,000 is an indication that turnout is once again strong here.

Hamilton County:
This is the other strong population area and one that generally favors the republican. Democrats have been stressing that all they have to do is work for a relative draw here. They admit that a 3-4 point win for Romney here would be a key indicator of them likely losing the state. In 2008 Obama actually won the county by five points, but Bush won it in both 2000 and 2004. Republicans need the turnout to be 350,000 or more.

Exit Polls:
While you cannot place too much stock in these, here is a few signs that one candidate is likely headed for victory...
Romney-

• Party identification numbers that are very close. Even a two point advantage for democrats is a great sign that Obama is going down in defeat. In 2008 democrats had a 39-31 advantage.
• Protestant/Evangelical turnout is huge in Ohio. A lead of at least 10 points among Protestant and even Catholic voters would be an early indicator that Romney will pull off the upset.

Obama-

• Party identification numbers that show at least a five point lead for democrats is a sign that this state will once again be blue.
• The youth vote (18-29) was won by Obama by a whopping margin of 25 points. A margin close to this again will likely mean another four years for Obama. Last year this group made up 17% of the electorate, which was the same percentage of seniors.

Presidential Election Overview

Can the Polls Be Off Enough for a Romney Win?
Any prognosticator that knows politics would tell you that in any given election the polls can indeed be off by several percentage points. However, the track record of poll averages and trend lines will also tell you that such an event is rare. In fact the last time state polls were off by a significant margin across the board was way back in 1992, in which polls were biased against republicans by 2.9. Such a scenario in reverse for 2012 would not only give Romney the election, but do so quite convincingly. Even the Princeton Election Consortium that is showing a land slide victory for Obama indicates that such a scenario would make Romney the likely winner. This sharp discrepancy is one of many reasons why I really question their predictions.

However, Romney does not need something this dramatic to occur to hand him the presidency. Contrary to what Nate Silver has been saying, this just is not the case. All we need is the polling in one state to be off by about a three point margin (Ohio) and a a couple small things to go Romney's way. This type of scenario happens a lot, including 2008 in which several swing state poll averages had a republican bias between 3-4 points, but in the end the total bias among all the polled states was only 0.8 points. Obviously, in this case we would still need Virginia (which is dead even) to go for Romney and then one state from all the others to go his way. (Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, etc.) So republicans are not in need of some type of incredible polling bias as some have tried to state, but the polls to be off in basically one state.

Some would argue that Romney also needs every state that the polls show him narrowly ahead to also break his way and not have a substantial counter-bias in any state that would be pro-republican. With all due respect I do not see much validity for any republican bias in this race. Why?
1.) Reports are showing that even democrats internal polling are showing the same basic results as the media polls. Generally speaking  internal polls are based upon somewhat dream scenarios that they see as likely happening, as it applies to voter turnout ratios. In this case, democrats have the rare "advantage" of having their likely scenarios represented in the published media polls. Back in 2008 democrats claimed that their internal polls were clearly showing Obama's margin being larger then the polls were indicating and this ended up being the case. According to articles I am reading, democrats are not finding much discrepancy between their polls and other polls for the most part.
2.) Almost every poll is showing a repeat of the record seven point advantage that democrats had in the 2008 voter turnout. In fact some Ohio polls are showing this margin even growing to a nine point advantage. I understand that this democrat bias is not intentional and is happening because of their polling formula they use to determine such things, but the notion that we are going to see anything like 2008 in voter turnout this timer around is just plain ludicrous! (Yes, I will stand behind this statement to the end.)
3.) Romney has something going his way that is giving prognosticators nightmares and that is popular vote polls have been showing this a dead even race, which does not collaborate with the state polls whatsoever. I have stated numerous times that my research has shown the state polls to be generally more accurate then national polls, but if the state polls have any reasonable republican bias then this is going to likely mean that the popular vote polls will be off by a very significant margin that has not been seen for a long time.

Will My Formula Consider Polling Bias?
After looking at the internal numbers behind numerous polls I am convinced that we could see dramatically different results then the polls are showing right now. But, like most prognosticators my predictions and margins are based mostly upon polling data. Otherwise, predictions would be based upon conjecture and feelings at the time. One does not need to go very far in my blog to see that my feelings have been all over the board. So if the polls are way off then my final predictions will probably be way off. For the record though I would still have to say my personal conjecture and feelings are still telling me Obama will win by a narrow margin.

The only thing my formula does do is take into consideration polls that have a track record of bias for one party and compensate polls that are outliers to a degree that is based upon that polls past accuracy. This and my trend line compensation are why my margins are usually different from the basic average of all the polls on RCP.

Are Both Candidates Worried and Confident?
When is a presidential candidate not worried, but portraying confidence would be a better question. Yet, from the reports I am reading while both campaigns feel like they are the favorite according to their numbers, both campaigns are losing sleep over one major issue...What if the other sides numbers are correct. After looking at the logic behind both sides numbers I can say that I see the validity behind both sets of opinions. However, republican pollsters admit that if what they see as likely were to happen then it would be a dead even race, with a very slight victory for Romney. However, if the democrats are right then Obama would win by a more comfortable margin.

Obama's Likely Path to Victory
Win the states that are already showing him with reasonable margins of victory; Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin all of which he is strongly favored in. Then he would just need one of the following states: Ohio, Virginia, or Florida. He could lose all three of these big states and still win the election if he pulled out both Colorado and New Hampshire as well.

Romney's Likely Path to Victory
Romney needs wins in Virginia (dead even) Florida (currently up by about one point) and Ohio (down by about three points) then he would be considered in the drivers seat on the basis of him only needing one additional state from a long list...Colorado, New Hampshire (both of which are extremely close) or longer shots like: Iowa, Nevada, or Wisconsin.