What to Watch for in Ohio

It all comes down to one county for both of these candidates. However, it is a different county for each of them to closely watch.

Cuyohoga County:
This is the democrats stronghold and is located in the Cleveland area. Strong voter turnout in this county would make Obama a huge favorite. This of course assumes that Obama wins this county by at least 35%. Voter turnout of at least 600,000 is an indication that turnout is once again strong here.

Hamilton County:
This is the other strong population area and one that generally favors the republican. Democrats have been stressing that all they have to do is work for a relative draw here. They admit that a 3-4 point win for Romney here would be a key indicator of them likely losing the state. In 2008 Obama actually won the county by five points, but Bush won it in both 2000 and 2004. Republicans need the turnout to be 350,000 or more.

Exit Polls:
While you cannot place too much stock in these, here is a few signs that one candidate is likely headed for victory...
Romney-

• Party identification numbers that are very close. Even a two point advantage for democrats is a great sign that Obama is going down in defeat. In 2008 democrats had a 39-31 advantage.
• Protestant/Evangelical turnout is huge in Ohio. A lead of at least 10 points among Protestant and even Catholic voters would be an early indicator that Romney will pull off the upset.

Obama-

• Party identification numbers that show at least a five point lead for democrats is a sign that this state will once again be blue.
• The youth vote (18-29) was won by Obama by a whopping margin of 25 points. A margin close to this again will likely mean another four years for Obama. Last year this group made up 17% of the electorate, which was the same percentage of seniors.

Presidential Election Overview

Can the Polls Be Off Enough for a Romney Win?
Any prognosticator that knows politics would tell you that in any given election the polls can indeed be off by several percentage points. However, the track record of poll averages and trend lines will also tell you that such an event is rare. In fact the last time state polls were off by a significant margin across the board was way back in 1992, in which polls were biased against republicans by 2.9. Such a scenario in reverse for 2012 would not only give Romney the election, but do so quite convincingly. Even the Princeton Election Consortium that is showing a land slide victory for Obama indicates that such a scenario would make Romney the likely winner. This sharp discrepancy is one of many reasons why I really question their predictions.

However, Romney does not need something this dramatic to occur to hand him the presidency. Contrary to what Nate Silver has been saying, this just is not the case. All we need is the polling in one state to be off by about a three point margin (Ohio) and a a couple small things to go Romney's way. This type of scenario happens a lot, including 2008 in which several swing state poll averages had a republican bias between 3-4 points, but in the end the total bias among all the polled states was only 0.8 points. Obviously, in this case we would still need Virginia (which is dead even) to go for Romney and then one state from all the others to go his way. (Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, etc.) So republicans are not in need of some type of incredible polling bias as some have tried to state, but the polls to be off in basically one state.

Some would argue that Romney also needs every state that the polls show him narrowly ahead to also break his way and not have a substantial counter-bias in any state that would be pro-republican. With all due respect I do not see much validity for any republican bias in this race. Why?
1.) Reports are showing that even democrats internal polling are showing the same basic results as the media polls. Generally speaking  internal polls are based upon somewhat dream scenarios that they see as likely happening, as it applies to voter turnout ratios. In this case, democrats have the rare "advantage" of having their likely scenarios represented in the published media polls. Back in 2008 democrats claimed that their internal polls were clearly showing Obama's margin being larger then the polls were indicating and this ended up being the case. According to articles I am reading, democrats are not finding much discrepancy between their polls and other polls for the most part.
2.) Almost every poll is showing a repeat of the record seven point advantage that democrats had in the 2008 voter turnout. In fact some Ohio polls are showing this margin even growing to a nine point advantage. I understand that this democrat bias is not intentional and is happening because of their polling formula they use to determine such things, but the notion that we are going to see anything like 2008 in voter turnout this timer around is just plain ludicrous! (Yes, I will stand behind this statement to the end.)
3.) Romney has something going his way that is giving prognosticators nightmares and that is popular vote polls have been showing this a dead even race, which does not collaborate with the state polls whatsoever. I have stated numerous times that my research has shown the state polls to be generally more accurate then national polls, but if the state polls have any reasonable republican bias then this is going to likely mean that the popular vote polls will be off by a very significant margin that has not been seen for a long time.

Will My Formula Consider Polling Bias?
After looking at the internal numbers behind numerous polls I am convinced that we could see dramatically different results then the polls are showing right now. But, like most prognosticators my predictions and margins are based mostly upon polling data. Otherwise, predictions would be based upon conjecture and feelings at the time. One does not need to go very far in my blog to see that my feelings have been all over the board. So if the polls are way off then my final predictions will probably be way off. For the record though I would still have to say my personal conjecture and feelings are still telling me Obama will win by a narrow margin.

The only thing my formula does do is take into consideration polls that have a track record of bias for one party and compensate polls that are outliers to a degree that is based upon that polls past accuracy. This and my trend line compensation are why my margins are usually different from the basic average of all the polls on RCP.

Are Both Candidates Worried and Confident?
When is a presidential candidate not worried, but portraying confidence would be a better question. Yet, from the reports I am reading while both campaigns feel like they are the favorite according to their numbers, both campaigns are losing sleep over one major issue...What if the other sides numbers are correct. After looking at the logic behind both sides numbers I can say that I see the validity behind both sets of opinions. However, republican pollsters admit that if what they see as likely were to happen then it would be a dead even race, with a very slight victory for Romney. However, if the democrats are right then Obama would win by a more comfortable margin.

Obama's Likely Path to Victory
Win the states that are already showing him with reasonable margins of victory; Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin all of which he is strongly favored in. Then he would just need one of the following states: Ohio, Virginia, or Florida. He could lose all three of these big states and still win the election if he pulled out both Colorado and New Hampshire as well.

Romney's Likely Path to Victory
Romney needs wins in Virginia (dead even) Florida (currently up by about one point) and Ohio (down by about three points) then he would be considered in the drivers seat on the basis of him only needing one additional state from a long list...Colorado, New Hampshire (both of which are extremely close) or longer shots like: Iowa, Nevada, or Wisconsin.

Predictions 11/3/2012

This is the last predictions that I will give until my final projections are posted on election day. As you can see  the Obama bounce is making Romney's chances appear rather slim. If the election were held today I am about 80% confident of an Obama electoral victory. Wisconsin is now safe for Obama and Ohio is now leaning Obama. However, the last few days before an election can see dramatic changes and tightening.

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Obama	9	60%	1.10	0.10
Florida	Romney	29	60%	0.90	0.10
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	65% 60%	1.40 1.25	0.20 0.25
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	2.30	0.50
Virginia	Romney	13	50%	0.10	0.25
Leaning States
Nevada	Obama	6	80%	2.8	.20
North Carolina*	Romney	10	80%	3.6	0.00
Ohio Leaning States	Obama Obama	18 24	75% 70-85%	3.25	.95 8
	Romney	10	70-85%		0
Safe States	Obama	247	90% +		10
	Romney	181	90% +		10
Total	Obama	253			10
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	79	50-65%		-10
Projected Finish	Obama	290			0
	Romney	248			0
Popular Vote	Obama	1.40			0.00

Is This Election Over?

Absolutely not, just because the fat lady is warning up does not mean that she will have to sing. But, make no mistake she is warming up and anticipating having to sing the farewell tune to Romney's campaign very soon. Some of you know that after the final debate I was so discouraged that I said that Romney had just lost the election. I'm afraid I should have trusted my gut instincts better, because a mixture of time and hearing other conservatives think that Romney had done great had me thinking that maybe it was not as bad as I thought. As I pore over polling data and trend lines I can clearly see that the final debate was what clearly started this uptick for Obama in the polls. Here is the problem...this was the most crucial week for Romney to finish what he has started a month ago and that was a massive, unprecedented blast of momentum that kept going and going, all because of one debate. This was the week that those undecideds were supposed to realize they would have to cover their nose and vote for Romney. This was the week that the last bang wagon jumpers were going to hop on and a narrow race that was slightly favoring Obama was going to turn into a narrow race favoring Romney. Now Romney must fight to convince his base that this race is not over and he still has a chance. The truth is that barring an incredible gaffe from Obama's team or a collapse from nearly every pollster, (which they would blame on hurricane Sandy) even conservative leaning ones, this race is beginning to slip out of hand. Even Rasmussen tracking now has a tie, which is a four point swing from what they were reporting before the final debate.

Before, the strategy for Romney was simple: Hang onto the states you are leading in and just win Ohio. Now things have gotten much more complicated. Colorado is going for Obama and is also trending his way in nearly every poll. Virginia is dead even and Florida could likely be a draw by the time that Tuesday rolls around. Now is the time for Romney to think about his last act of desperation and it had better be good. This week is so critical because of those fence riders, but it looks like they will be making their ultimate decision during an Obama high.

What is even more amazing then Romney's 2-3 week surge is the fact that I am beginning to see signs that come election day if things stay on this path, the election may not even be close. One day could change all of that pessimism, but the data is looking bad. I keep waiting for some signs that what appears to be happening was not happening, but what I keep getting is more signs that what I am seeing is not evidence that I need glasses but a tissue.

Note: It's a good thing that I can take this post down tomorrow if things change. Then you will never have any proof that I really said these things 4 days before the election.

Predictions 11/1/2012

Toss-Up States	Projected Winner	EV	Confidence	Deficit	Change
Colorado	Obama	9	60%	1.20	1.20
Florida	Romney	29	60%	1.00	0.15
Iowa New Hampshire	Obama Obama	6 4	65% 60%	1.20 1.00	0.50 0.50
Ohio	Obama	18	65%	2.30	0.50
Virginia	Romney	13	50%	0.35	0.35
Leaning States
Nevada	Obama	6	80%	2.8	.20
North Carolina*	Romney	10	80%	3.6	1.10
Wisconsin Leaning States	Obama Obama	10 16	70% 70-85%	2.80	.90 10
	Romney	10	70-85%		10
Safe States	Obama	237	90% +		0
	Romney	181	90% +		10
Total	Obama	259			10
	Romney	206			0
	Toss-Ups	73	50-65%		-10
Projected Finish	Obama	290			9
	Romney	248			-9
Popular Vote	Obama	1.40			0.20

Will Voter Turnout or Independents Skew Polls?

The basic question that determines every election is not what many people tend to believe. Every primary season we hear the same question or argument of: Who can best win over Independents and thus win the election? Yet, regardless of how often this nonsense is spewed, more and more people are buying into the line. This election could be a prime example: Mitt Romney according to almost every national poll and even many swing state polls is in fact winning among this "key" voter block. Yet, if the election were held today he does not have very good chance of winning the election. Why? There is another question that is far important to winning elections...Who can best energize their own base and get them out to vote? The primary reason behind this is that the vast majority of voters will always be from one party or the other and roughly 90% of these voters will vote strictly according to their party affiliation every election. Then for the most part neither party has much of a track record of winning a decisive percentage of these voters anyway. Let us consider the voting trends among only independents for the past three elections.
2000- Bush 47%- Gore 45%
2004- Kerry 49%- Bush 48%
2008- Obama 53%-McCain 45%

So the largest margin was clearly 2008 in which McCain was defeated by eight percentage points in a year that only 29% of the electorate was classified as independents. Yet, in 2008 a record low 32% of the electorate classified themselves as republicans compared to 37% of the electorate in 2004. Now what was more important? Losing 5% of the total electorate which would have voted for you at roughly a 90-10 clip or losing by 8% among 29% of the electorate. It does not take rocket science or a mathematical genius to figure out that republicans staying home in 2008 was more of a cause for McCain's defeat and in 2004 republican voter turnout was basically the only reason for Bush winning re-election.

Another aspect that must be considered is that roughly 75% of independents vote nearly along one parties line. This means that in 2008 only around 8% were really independents. (For the longest time I was classified on my voter registration card as an independent, but I have only voted for one democrat in my life.)

Now let's take a look at voter turnout among party lines for the past 12 years.
2000- Democrats 39%, Republicans 35%, Independents 27%
2002- Democrats 38%, Republicans 40%, Independents 22%
2004- Democrats 37%, Republicans 37%, Independents 26%
2006- Democrats 38%, Republicans 36%, Independents 26%
2008- Democrats 39%, Republicans 32%, Independents 29%
2010- Democrats 35%, Republicans 35%, Independents 29%
2012- ?????

Here is the ultimate question for 2012...will voter turnout look very similar to 2008 as the majority of pollsters are predicting? Or will we see turnout like it was in 2004 and 2010 that was evenly split? If the answer to question one is yes then Obama should be considered a heavy favorite, but if the answer to question two is yes then Romney should be considered a heavy favorite and pollsters and prognosticators will look silly on election night. In my heart I tend to think we are looking at a median between the 2004 and 2008 numbers. My prediction looks like this...
2012- Democrats 38%, Republicans 35%, Independents 27%

If my non-formulated prediction on voter turnout is correct will this impact the election? The only way to answer that question is to know how close the margin will be in the polling on election day. This is the reason  I keep saying that Romney must be no more then 2% behind in a state like Ohio for me to view him as having a realistic chance of winning on election day. This is because I have reformulated the numbers from the polls that heavily weighs 2008 as the likely voter trend and it either becomes a statistical tie or a very narrow win for Obama still.

There is yet another aspect that must be considered when we look at voting turnout and that is the percentage of current registered voters that fall into each party currently. In 2008, 40.3% of registered voters considered themselves democrats. This was a clear indication from the very start of the 2008 campaign that Americans were not wanting to identify with the GOP whatsoever, therefore any republican would have had an uphill climb to defeat either Clinton or Obama. Of course when we look at these numbers of how registered voters divvy up, we must be reminded that historically democrats turn out on election day at a higher clip then republicans. So just because there may be more republicans at a given point is not any indication that they would likely win an election that is held during that time. Here is the registered voter breakdown for the past few elections in October...
YEAR- R   D      I
2004- 37.2/38.7/24.1
2006- 31.5/37.7/30.7
2008- 33.3/40.3/26.4
2010- 36.0/34.7/29.3
2012- 36.8/34.2/29.0 (As of September)

However, the gap favoring republicans in the past few months has been quickly closing and by the time election day rolls around we could be looking at a nearly even split. So why then are the majority of polls not considering these registered voter numbers much...
1.) They rarely do. Many use an enthusiasm gap method in which if the vast amount of callers identify with one party then that party will be much more heavily weighted. Polls that use this method have had rather mixed voter turnout projections, but they generally either look a lot like the 2008 numbers or show up to 35% of the electorate as independents which ends up bringing down the republican total to between 30-32% of the electorate. These are staggering projections that I tend to think are not based upon realistic reality.
2.) Many pollsters were rather embarrassed in 2008 by having their party weighing system way off. Almost every poll underestimated Obama's numbers and some feel like they could be trying to make up for this mistake in 2012, despite contradicting numbers.
3.) Obama is considered to have a much better ground game in most of the crucial swing states. This means that they can more easily offset these numbers with increased democrat turnout. If a voter knows that the candidate he wants to win is going to take care of driving him to and from the polls and give him a little gift as well, then they will most likely consider themself a likely voter when they are polled and probably be more apt to participate in polls.
4.) These numbers are all general election or popular vote based and popular vote polls seem more inclined to consider these numbers. Ohio generally has very similar numbers to the general electorate as a whole, yet most of the recent polls are not paying much attention to these registered voter numbers, but there is overwhelming evidence that several of the popular vote polls are considering these numbers by the close breakdown by party affiliation. If somehow the popular vote polls were more accurate on election day then the state polls, which is very rare, then this would likely be the key reason. Take for instance that as of June 2012 Rasmussen General Election polls were predicting a 36% republican, 34% democrat, 32% independents outcome. No wonder why Rasmussen is always showing such favorable numbers to Romney. However, in fairness their numbers have likely shifted as the registered voter breakdown has also shifted in the past few months and they were very accurate in their October 2008 predictions when they predicted a 40-33-26 breakdown, (D-R-I) which was close to the actual result of 39-32-29.

New Post and Predictions Coming

Due to circumstances beyond our control we were unable to update the numbers yesterday or add anything to the blog. We will try to do both by this afternoon. Thank you for your understanding.