| Toss-Up States | Projected Winner | EV | Confidence | Deficit | Change |
| Colorado | Romney | 9 | 50% | TIE | 0.20 |
| Florida | Romney | 29 | 60% | 1.15 | 0.00 |
| Iowa New Hampshire | Obama Obama | 6 4 | 65% 60% | 1.70 1.50 | 0.00 0.30 |
| Ohio | Obama | 18 | 65% | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Virginia | Romney | 13 | 50% | TIE | 0.75 |
| Wisconsin | Obama | 10 | 65% | 1.90 | 0.00 |
| Leaning States | |||||
| Nevada | Obama | 6 | 80% | 2.6 | 0% |
| North Carolina* | Romney | 10 | 80% | 2.5 | Status |
Leaning States | Obama | 6 | 70-85% | 0 | |
| Romney | 10 | 70-85% | 10 | ||
| Safe States | Obama | 237 | 90% + | 0 | |
| Romney | 181 | 90% + | 10 | ||
| Total | Obama | 249 | 0 | ||
| Romney | 206 | 0 | |||
| Toss-Ups | 83 | 50-65% | 0 | ||
| Projected Finish | Obama | 281 | 0 | ||
| Romney | 257 | 0 | |||
Popular Vote | Obama | 1.20 | 0.40 |
Monday, October 29, 2012
Predictions 10/29/2012
More movement in Obama's direction over the weekend and it has become rather clear that Obama likely seen some help from the last debate. North Carolina was not able to escape his bounce and can no longer be considered a safe state. We also have a truly unique situation as we have two states with identical ties according to our latest numbers. What is even more unique is that the RCP average is also a tie in these two states. We are crediting Romney with both of these states still, only due to him being the previous leader there. There is the potential of quite a bit of movement in the days to come and if things continue in this direction we could have Obama's electoral lead growing considerably as has happened with his popular vote margin of victory. However, we did see some good news for the Romney camp in Ohio as the state has returned under the two point margin and has actually seen some potential trending his way, but not enough to move the final projected poll numbers there. A reminder that some time the final week before an election can see quite a bit of movement as undecided voters determine their opinion and likely the fate of the presidency. This is still a close election in many ways so if you once again do not like my findings come back tomorrow and they could be better (or worse of course) Those of you interested in the Senate races will find some projections here in the days to come and obviously my final projections on election day will also have Senate races included as well.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Still Hope for Romney
Republicans, step away from the cliff! This election is not over and in a few moments I will explain to you exactly why. I guess you could say this post comes as a result of the caving pressure I feel to give my republican readers some rays of hope after yesterdays projections.
1.) While I do not anticipate voter turnout and polling errors in the state of Ohio to be off by the 2 1/2 points it would need to be to give Romney the state. However, it is very common with elections with this type of volatile numbers for poll data to be off around one and a half to two percentage points in either direction, due to dramatically higher voter turnout then expected from one party over the other. Even if increased republican turnout were to only close the gap by a mere one percentage point there then this could be significant.
2.) Two of the state polls in Ohio yesterday were showing between 4-6 percent of the Ohio population is still either undecided or could easily change their mind. While it is true that undecided voters generally strongly favor the challenger it is just not safe to include these past voter trends into projections of the future. It was for this reason alone that some prognosticators predicted Kerry to defeat Bush in 2004, despite the consensus of the polls showing Bush hanging onto a small lead. However, things ended up going the opposite of expected and polling showed that Bush ended up getting over half of the remaining undecideds. One factor that can be looked at in projecting which way undecided voters will go is the approval rating of the incumbent. Generally, one needs to have at least a 49% approval rating to have a reasonable chance of winning a second term. On election day in 2004 Bush was sitting right at 50%. Right now Obama's approval rating sits right on the danger line with an average rating of 48.6. Looking at the above numbers I do not think it is unreasonable to conclude that late deciders will at least slightly favor Romney. Let's assume once again for the sake of argument that Romney gains about one percentage point among these voters.
Obama's Approval Rating on RCP
3.) Already we have a dead heat if both of the above things were to take place. Now instead of Romney having to gain over two percentage points in the next week and a half he would only need to gain around a half of one percent in the next week to give him a favorable chance at pulling out Ohio.
Now the disclaimers. I am not saying that Romney will or will not gain one point with higher turnout then expected. However, it should be considered encouraging that two of the recent Ohio polls were showing a 7-8 point edge in democrats then republicans. Why is this good news? It is safe to say that republican voter turnout cannot be worse then these pollsters are showing in their lopsided enthusiasm-gap findings. Chances are very good that they will fair at least some better then these numbers indicate.
I am also not saying that undecided voters will go for Romney. The oddity of this election is that the challenger is in a close race against an incumbent despite the fact that he has pretty dismal favorable numbers compared to past challengers.
It is important to understand that a Ohio victory for Romney does not give him the election, while it almost certainly would for Obama. Rommey will almost definitely need Colorado to win on election day and that state is a virtual tie using my formula. Then Romney would have to win Virginia and Florida to ensure victory.
1.) While I do not anticipate voter turnout and polling errors in the state of Ohio to be off by the 2 1/2 points it would need to be to give Romney the state. However, it is very common with elections with this type of volatile numbers for poll data to be off around one and a half to two percentage points in either direction, due to dramatically higher voter turnout then expected from one party over the other. Even if increased republican turnout were to only close the gap by a mere one percentage point there then this could be significant.
2.) Two of the state polls in Ohio yesterday were showing between 4-6 percent of the Ohio population is still either undecided or could easily change their mind. While it is true that undecided voters generally strongly favor the challenger it is just not safe to include these past voter trends into projections of the future. It was for this reason alone that some prognosticators predicted Kerry to defeat Bush in 2004, despite the consensus of the polls showing Bush hanging onto a small lead. However, things ended up going the opposite of expected and polling showed that Bush ended up getting over half of the remaining undecideds. One factor that can be looked at in projecting which way undecided voters will go is the approval rating of the incumbent. Generally, one needs to have at least a 49% approval rating to have a reasonable chance of winning a second term. On election day in 2004 Bush was sitting right at 50%. Right now Obama's approval rating sits right on the danger line with an average rating of 48.6. Looking at the above numbers I do not think it is unreasonable to conclude that late deciders will at least slightly favor Romney. Let's assume once again for the sake of argument that Romney gains about one percentage point among these voters.
Obama's Approval Rating on RCP
| RCP Average | 10/15 - 10/26 | -- | 48.6 | 47.9 | +0.7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/24 - 10/26 | 1500 LV | 47 | 52 | -5 |
| Gallup | 10/23 - 10/25 | 1500 A | 48 | 47 | +1 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 10/22 - 10/25 | 1382 LV | 49 | 49 | Tie |
| Associated Press/GfK | 10/19 - 10/23 | 839 LV | 49 | 49 | Tie |
| CBS News | 10/17 - 10/20 | 1383 A | 49 | 42 | +7 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 10/17 - 10/20 | 1000 RV | 49 | 48 | +1 |
| Politico/GWU/Battleground | 10/15 - 10/18 | 1000 LV | 49 | 48 | +1 |
3.) Already we have a dead heat if both of the above things were to take place. Now instead of Romney having to gain over two percentage points in the next week and a half he would only need to gain around a half of one percent in the next week to give him a favorable chance at pulling out Ohio.
Now the disclaimers. I am not saying that Romney will or will not gain one point with higher turnout then expected. However, it should be considered encouraging that two of the recent Ohio polls were showing a 7-8 point edge in democrats then republicans. Why is this good news? It is safe to say that republican voter turnout cannot be worse then these pollsters are showing in their lopsided enthusiasm-gap findings. Chances are very good that they will fair at least some better then these numbers indicate.
I am also not saying that undecided voters will go for Romney. The oddity of this election is that the challenger is in a close race against an incumbent despite the fact that he has pretty dismal favorable numbers compared to past challengers.
It is important to understand that a Ohio victory for Romney does not give him the election, while it almost certainly would for Obama. Rommey will almost definitely need Colorado to win on election day and that state is a virtual tie using my formula. Then Romney would have to win Virginia and Florida to ensure victory.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Predictions 10/26/2012
Ominous signs for Mr. Romney and it could not have came at a worse time. In some states we are beginning to even see some signs of a race that is not only being won by Obama, but a race that is now trending his way. While nothing changed in the electoral count, the blue numbers in the margin column (Note: Blue numbers in the change column indicates it has gone towards Obama and red numbers in this column indicates a change favoring Romney) will tell the story. While some of the numbers were not that bad in and of itself, the source of the number is the bad sign. When you have ARG and Purple Strategies giving the numbers they are, it spells some trouble. A couple of the polls that were showing great numbers for Obama that was being docked as an outlier poll can either no longer be treated this way or have had the margin they were docked decreased. The cause of this shift is unknown and may never be. If it is a slight bounce from the last debate then look for these numbers to get worse for Romney in the days to come as clearer trend lines are drawn. Wisconsin was the only state that showed some positive news for the Romney camp, but that is only due to one isolated poll. If the election were held today I am about 75% sure that Obama would win a second term.
| Toss-Up States | Projected Winner | EV | Confidence | Deficit | Change |
| Colorado | Romney | 9 | 50% | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Florida | Romney | 29 | 60% | 1.15 | 0.85 |
| Iowa New Hampshire | Obama Obama | 6 4 | 65% 60% | 1.70 1.20 | 0.50 0.70 |
| Ohio | Obama | 18 | 65% | 2.20 | 0.30 |
| Virginia | Romney | 13 | 55% | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| Wisconsin* | Obama | 10 | 65% | 1.90 | 0.30 |
| Leaning States | |||||
| Nevada* | Obama | 6 | 80% | 0% | |
| Leaning States | Obama | 6 | 70-85% | 0 | |
| Romney | 0 | 70-85% | 0 | ||
| Safe States | Obama | 237 | 90% + | 0 | |
| Romney | 191 | 90% + | 0 | ||
| Total | Obama | 249 | 0 | ||
| Romney | 206 | 0 | |||
| Toss-Ups | 83 | 50-65% | 0 | ||
| Projected Finish | Obama | 281 | 0 | ||
| Romney | 257 | 0 | |||
Popular Vote | Obama | 0.80 | 0.10 |
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Predictions 10/25/2012
These predictions are not including any polls posted past 11:00 AM EST. Due to the lack of polling data the last couple days you will not see very many changes. However, I am planning on revising these same predictions tonight after all of today's polls are in. The big movement comes in Hew Hampshire where things are once again in a dead heat. This is largely due to further polling which made the UNH poll a further outlier. Despite the three polls in Ohio, not much has really happened there. The popular vote remains slightly in Obama's favor according to our formula, which weighs the state polling more heavily. The popular vote polling is close enough that if we seen a dead heat in states like Ohio then Romney would immediately pull ahead by over a point nationally as well.
| Toss-Up States | Projected Winner | EV | Confidence | Deficit | Change |
| Colorado | Romney | 9 | 55% | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Florida | Romney | 29 | 65% | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Iowa New Hampshire | Obama Obama | 6 4 | 60% 55% | 1.20 0.50 | 0.00 1.00 |
| Ohio | Obama | 18 | 65% | 1.90 | 0.10 |
| Virginia | Romney | 13 | 55% | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Wisconsin* | Obama | 10 | 65% | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Leaning States | |||||
| Nevada* | Obama | 6 | 80% | 0% | |
| Leaning States | Obama | 6 | 70-85% | 0 | |
| Romney | 0 | 70-85% | 0 | ||
| Safe States | Obama | 237 | 90% + | 0 | |
| Romney | 191 | 90% + | 0 | ||
| Total | Obama | 249 | 0 | ||
| Romney | 206 | 0 | |||
| Toss-Ups | 83 | 50-65% | 0 | ||
| Projected Finish | Obama | 281 | 0 | ||
| Romney | 257 | 0 | |||
Popular Vote | Obama | 0.70 | 0.20 | ||
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Polls are Stabalizing
You've heard the old expression if you don't like the weather then hold on and it will change? Well, this could be said in the polling field as well. Despite the lack of extensive polls that have been done recently we do have ample information to conclude that we have gone through a stabilizing point in this election cycle. The popular vote polls as of a week ago had two outliers from opposite sides...Gallup showing Romney by 7 and IBD/TIPP showing Obama by 6. Now the Gallup poll has retreated to Romney by 3 and IBD/TIPP now shows Obama by 3. Despite the three polls from Ohio my formula remains basically the same, as it now shows Obama by 1.9 rather then 1.8. Nevada is still in the same classification and confidence level. Now let us consider what this means for the race as a whole?
1.) Despite several media talking heads insisting Obama would receive a bounce from debate number 2, he has not. Despite some anticipating some swings after this last debate...preliminary evidence does not show this at all. In many ways the race has been fairly stable for the past week.
2.) Every time we think it is safe to conclude that Romney's momentum had ended...it shows some traces of life. Maybe it will work this way again as I once again think it is safe to conclude that Romney's momentum has stopped.
3.) If either candidate starts even a slight, yet consistent momentum then they could very well be the next President of the United States! Will this news of the leaked emails that shows an administration cover-up do it? Will Obama get a slight bounce from the third debate and turn it into steady momentum? Any little thing has the potential of deciding the election.
Are Pennsylvania and Michigan In Play?
In two words...Probably Not! They are still classified as safe for Obama, because there is no evidence to the contrary. I will say that Michigan is very tough to formulate, due to most of the polls being from un-reputable firms that have shown a lot of outliers, sometimes for both candidates.
The new democratic poll showing a tie in Michigan should be treated with great skepticisnm. Here is what I know about the poll. First, they have shown very good numbers for Romney throughout the entire election. In fact almost every single one of their polls have been outliers with little to no other evidence supporting a race even remotely as close as they indicate. At one point they had Romney up by 4. I also know that the creator of the poll is one outspoken man that goes around to professional projection sites to justify his findings and make sure everyone knows he stands behind it. While I am glad he stands behind his work I find it odd that he has the time to go all over the Internet bragging on his poll. However, they are also the first poll taken there for quite a while and are showing a three point bump for Romney compared to their previous findings. If other polls began to show similar numbers then it could change the classification in a hurry since half of the polls up there are being adjusted to the median of the average. My best advice for those excited or worried: Don't be! I would love some nation wide firms to do more polls up there as several of the local polls up there have been less then trustworthy, making my job rather difficult. EPIC-MRA has shown extreme outlier numbers for both candidates and others like this Baydoun/Foster poll and Mitchell Research has been very right leaning in their findings.
Pennsylvania has been basically the same place it has been for a while. A week or so ago Susquehanna did a poll showing Romney by 4 there, but it failed to meet the criteria set by Real Clear Politics for inclusion. As many of you know I will only include polls that meet their criteria.
In short...both of these states are showing Obama up by exactly 5 points according to our sideaprojections. This is still over a point away from being included in the leaning column for Obama.
A Popular Vote Poll With a Great Track Record
The ABC News/Washington Post poll has had great success for several elections now. The good news for poll watchers is that they are now doing what looks to be a daily tracking poll. I also find their findings to be much more reasonable then some of the others. They are currently showing Romney by 1.
New Projections Coming By Noon Tomorrow
Unless we have a lot of morning polls tomorrow then do not expect a lot of changes in the numbers. The biggest movement so far has been in New Hampshire.
1.) Despite several media talking heads insisting Obama would receive a bounce from debate number 2, he has not. Despite some anticipating some swings after this last debate...preliminary evidence does not show this at all. In many ways the race has been fairly stable for the past week.
2.) Every time we think it is safe to conclude that Romney's momentum had ended...it shows some traces of life. Maybe it will work this way again as I once again think it is safe to conclude that Romney's momentum has stopped.
3.) If either candidate starts even a slight, yet consistent momentum then they could very well be the next President of the United States! Will this news of the leaked emails that shows an administration cover-up do it? Will Obama get a slight bounce from the third debate and turn it into steady momentum? Any little thing has the potential of deciding the election.
Are Pennsylvania and Michigan In Play?
In two words...Probably Not! They are still classified as safe for Obama, because there is no evidence to the contrary. I will say that Michigan is very tough to formulate, due to most of the polls being from un-reputable firms that have shown a lot of outliers, sometimes for both candidates.
The new democratic poll showing a tie in Michigan should be treated with great skepticisnm. Here is what I know about the poll. First, they have shown very good numbers for Romney throughout the entire election. In fact almost every single one of their polls have been outliers with little to no other evidence supporting a race even remotely as close as they indicate. At one point they had Romney up by 4. I also know that the creator of the poll is one outspoken man that goes around to professional projection sites to justify his findings and make sure everyone knows he stands behind it. While I am glad he stands behind his work I find it odd that he has the time to go all over the Internet bragging on his poll. However, they are also the first poll taken there for quite a while and are showing a three point bump for Romney compared to their previous findings. If other polls began to show similar numbers then it could change the classification in a hurry since half of the polls up there are being adjusted to the median of the average. My best advice for those excited or worried: Don't be! I would love some nation wide firms to do more polls up there as several of the local polls up there have been less then trustworthy, making my job rather difficult. EPIC-MRA has shown extreme outlier numbers for both candidates and others like this Baydoun/Foster poll and Mitchell Research has been very right leaning in their findings.
Pennsylvania has been basically the same place it has been for a while. A week or so ago Susquehanna did a poll showing Romney by 4 there, but it failed to meet the criteria set by Real Clear Politics for inclusion. As many of you know I will only include polls that meet their criteria.
In short...both of these states are showing Obama up by exactly 5 points according to our sideaprojections. This is still over a point away from being included in the leaning column for Obama.
A Popular Vote Poll With a Great Track Record
The ABC News/Washington Post poll has had great success for several elections now. The good news for poll watchers is that they are now doing what looks to be a daily tracking poll. I also find their findings to be much more reasonable then some of the others. They are currently showing Romney by 1.
New Projections Coming By Noon Tomorrow
Unless we have a lot of morning polls tomorrow then do not expect a lot of changes in the numbers. The biggest movement so far has been in New Hampshire.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Could Romney Win Popular Vote But Lose Election?
One of the peculiar things about this election is the seeming discrepancy between popular vote polling and state polling. Today's batch of polls especially was amazing to behold considering how they just do not match the state of the race and the state of the race according to their own polls. Take for instance a very reputable firm that has shown incredible accuracy in the past...Survey USA. Their most recent popular vote poll shows Romney by 3. Yet, this same firm shows Obama winning Ohio by 3 and the only recent poll showing Obama ahead in Florida by a narrow one point margin. If this was a problem with just one or two polls then we would have reason to be skeptical, but it is across the board. Rasmussen is now showing Romney by 4 in the popular vote and still losing Ohio by one point. It is practically impossible for Romney to be ahead by 3-4 points nationally and be losing Ohio, much less Florida. Could the national polls be right. There are many theories...
1.) The consensus of national polling could be right, which would mean something rather odd. The average of all the polls show approximately a one point lead for Romney and their have been occasions in which the deciding state which placed the candidate at the needed 270 EV was up to 2 points off from the popular vote margin. So in this election the deciding state that places either candidate in the winning column will likely mean Ohio. This means that their are numerous occasions in which this differential is up to two points. Recently we have been noticing this gap almost widening. In 2008 Colorado was the state that pushed Obama over the top and he won it by 8.5 but only won the popular vote by 7.3. Rarely has the discrepancy coincided with an election that was extremely close and as a result it has not mattered until 2000 that is. If you adjusted the national average by a mere two points then suddenly we have a case in which Obama is narrowly winning the popular vote and also winning Ohio by basically the same margin. In short Romney could be up by 1 point and end up losing the election due to the closeness of so many states and the narrow margin that Obama is holding onto in Ohio.
2.) That the state polls are biased but the popular vote polls are not. -OR- The Popular vote polls are biased, but the state polls are not. What is amazing is that both democrats and republicans seems to like this theory. Democrats point to the fact that many of the popular vote polls that are published have a known, proven republican bias. Republicans (Because they are the ones on the short end of the stick in the state polling) suddenly declare that the state polls must be biased. Their are a few major problems with this theory. First, how can the same poll be considered accurate in the popular vote, but biased in the state polls. Second, there are those terrible things called facts and track records. Historically, popular vote polls are not only more inaccurate then state polling, but more biased as well. Look at the chart below...
1.) The consensus of national polling could be right, which would mean something rather odd. The average of all the polls show approximately a one point lead for Romney and their have been occasions in which the deciding state which placed the candidate at the needed 270 EV was up to 2 points off from the popular vote margin. So in this election the deciding state that places either candidate in the winning column will likely mean Ohio. This means that their are numerous occasions in which this differential is up to two points. Recently we have been noticing this gap almost widening. In 2008 Colorado was the state that pushed Obama over the top and he won it by 8.5 but only won the popular vote by 7.3. Rarely has the discrepancy coincided with an election that was extremely close and as a result it has not mattered until 2000 that is. If you adjusted the national average by a mere two points then suddenly we have a case in which Obama is narrowly winning the popular vote and also winning Ohio by basically the same margin. In short Romney could be up by 1 point and end up losing the election due to the closeness of so many states and the narrow margin that Obama is holding onto in Ohio.
2.) That the state polls are biased but the popular vote polls are not. -OR- The Popular vote polls are biased, but the state polls are not. What is amazing is that both democrats and republicans seems to like this theory. Democrats point to the fact that many of the popular vote polls that are published have a known, proven republican bias. Republicans (Because they are the ones on the short end of the stick in the state polling) suddenly declare that the state polls must be biased. Their are a few major problems with this theory. First, how can the same poll be considered accurate in the popular vote, but biased in the state polls. Second, there are those terrible things called facts and track records. Historically, popular vote polls are not only more inaccurate then state polling, but more biased as well. Look at the chart below...
Two things strike me about this chart...
1.) The incredible accuracy of polling averages. They have been less then one point off from the end result on average over the past 10 elections.
2.) Over the past 10 elections that there has been a democrat bias 5 times and a republican bias 4 times. -AND- The bias has been less then one percent on average. Yet, with as good as these polls have been let us consider the same chart, but only with state polling averages. This depicts the third theory and one that I lean towards being the most reasonable and that is the state polling this election cycle will once again be the most accurate of the two types
Monday, October 22, 2012
A Night With Zingers But No Daggers
Who Won?
The one that convinced more voters of course. I know the media is caring only about who scored the most points. If you went according to that, then the president probably did. He was the one on the attack most of the night and he had to be. Romney played it safe, probably too safe in my opinion, and he could afford to. How many undecideds made up their mind tonight? If a large number did then that would likely spell trouble for Romney who was not trying to score a big win. How many Undecideds did not even listen or watch the debate tonight? Here lies the key issue. If this small block of voters did not follow things tonight or stayed on the fence afterwords then this would probably spell serious trouble for Obama; considering the fact that fence riders historically favor the challenger more times then not. I could very easily make the case that Romney could have won tonight by default.
What Happened to the Truth?
Obama loves and supports Israel now? When did this start?
Romney is in favor of a timetable for troops being withdrawn from Afghanistan? What happened to you between last debate and this debate?
Obama says Al Queda's core has been decimated? Did something just happen over the past 24 hours that I never found out about? If it did then you might want to tell your generals on the ground that is of the mindset that Al Queda has been emboldened in the past few years.
Romney supports the actions taken in Egypt? Do people generally attack somebody on an issue for several months that they agree with them on?
As most of you know I am a conservative at my very core and have never been undecided in this election. However, when I hear lie after lie and flip flop after flip flop from both candidates I just cannot stomach it. Going back to my earlier question...Who won tonight? Definitely not the truth!
The State of the Race Post-Debates
We said coming into this debate that the pressure was clearly on Obama, considering the ongoing momentum that Romney has been riding. I felt like Obama would need not a win, but a dominant and huge victory. I do not think he quite got there. Does this mean that Romney will ride momentum to a victory. No one knows. What this likely will mean is that he will be going into the election in a dead heat. Obama was already the favored candidate on foreign policy by a 10-15 point margin. Is it really possible for him to gain anymore? I have my strong doubts. Is it possible that Romney gained a few points in that category? Very possible. However, I am of the mindset that most people will be voting based upon their pocketbooks on election day. Did this debate change their minds? I felt like Obama was probably effective at emphasizing nation building here at home. But, I also felt like the economic realities or the numbers that Romney shared always seems to help bring people back to reality. No one scored a knockout. No one made a big gaffe or blunder.Therefore, the race will probably follow the same basic trend going forward. If either candidate gets even a small bounce from this debate then that candidate will likely be the winner. That is how close this election is and that is how close I expect it to stay.
Expect Some Pro-Romney Polls Soon
The one that convinced more voters of course. I know the media is caring only about who scored the most points. If you went according to that, then the president probably did. He was the one on the attack most of the night and he had to be. Romney played it safe, probably too safe in my opinion, and he could afford to. How many undecideds made up their mind tonight? If a large number did then that would likely spell trouble for Romney who was not trying to score a big win. How many Undecideds did not even listen or watch the debate tonight? Here lies the key issue. If this small block of voters did not follow things tonight or stayed on the fence afterwords then this would probably spell serious trouble for Obama; considering the fact that fence riders historically favor the challenger more times then not. I could very easily make the case that Romney could have won tonight by default.
What Happened to the Truth?
Obama loves and supports Israel now? When did this start?
Romney is in favor of a timetable for troops being withdrawn from Afghanistan? What happened to you between last debate and this debate?
Obama says Al Queda's core has been decimated? Did something just happen over the past 24 hours that I never found out about? If it did then you might want to tell your generals on the ground that is of the mindset that Al Queda has been emboldened in the past few years.
Romney supports the actions taken in Egypt? Do people generally attack somebody on an issue for several months that they agree with them on?
As most of you know I am a conservative at my very core and have never been undecided in this election. However, when I hear lie after lie and flip flop after flip flop from both candidates I just cannot stomach it. Going back to my earlier question...Who won tonight? Definitely not the truth!
The State of the Race Post-Debates
We said coming into this debate that the pressure was clearly on Obama, considering the ongoing momentum that Romney has been riding. I felt like Obama would need not a win, but a dominant and huge victory. I do not think he quite got there. Does this mean that Romney will ride momentum to a victory. No one knows. What this likely will mean is that he will be going into the election in a dead heat. Obama was already the favored candidate on foreign policy by a 10-15 point margin. Is it really possible for him to gain anymore? I have my strong doubts. Is it possible that Romney gained a few points in that category? Very possible. However, I am of the mindset that most people will be voting based upon their pocketbooks on election day. Did this debate change their minds? I felt like Obama was probably effective at emphasizing nation building here at home. But, I also felt like the economic realities or the numbers that Romney shared always seems to help bring people back to reality. No one scored a knockout. No one made a big gaffe or blunder.Therefore, the race will probably follow the same basic trend going forward. If either candidate gets even a small bounce from this debate then that candidate will likely be the winner. That is how close this election is and that is how close I expect it to stay.
Expect Some Pro-Romney Polls Soon
Some polls have consistently shown betters news for each of the candidates. However, in a state like Ohio the average of all of the polls are not including data from Purple Strategies, ARG, and even Mason-Dixon. Romney needs to have these polls show positve data for him to have much of a chance. My guess is that we will begin to see a couple of these in the near future. Romney fans should not get too excited by good results here, they should expect them; considering the state of the race and what other mainline polls are showing. Remember, while many polls can be wrong, rarely will every single poll be wrong. In other words in a state like Ohio it should be troubling to Romney that the best result he can muster is a tie from any poll. I expect that to change if my assumption is correct on some of these polls popping up soon.
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