| Toss-Up States | Projected Winner | EV | Confidence | Deficit | Change |
| Colorado | Romney | 9 | 55% | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Florida | Romney | 29 | 65% | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Iowa New Hampshire |
Obama Obama | 6 4 |
60% 55% |
1.20 1.50 |
0.90 1.50 |
| Ohio | Obama | 18 | 65% | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| Virginia | Romney | 13 | 55% | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Wisconsin* | Obama | 10 | 65% | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Leaning States | |||||
| Nevada* | Obama | 6 | 80% | 0% | |
| Leaning States | Obama | 6 | 70-85% | 0 | |
| Romney | 0 | 70-85% | 0 | ||
| Safe States | Obama | 237 | 90% + | 0 | |
| Romney | 191 | 90% + | 0 | ||
| Total | Obama | 249 | 0 | ||
| Romney | 206 | 0 | |||
| Toss-Ups | 83 | 50-65% | 0 | ||
| Projected Finish | Obama | 281 | 0 | ||
| Romney | 257 | 0 | |||
| Popular Vote | Obama | 0.90 |
Monday, October 22, 2012
Predictions 10/22/201
Lots of varying polls, but plugged in all together, does not make much of a change on the numbers. We are starting a new feature for all of the toss-up states with adding a deficit column and tracking the change in deficit rather then confidence level. The projected finish has continued to be the same throughout the past 10 days, which I believe to be consistent with real voting trends and a strength of the formula which does not lend itself to dramatic day-to-day changes. The biggest change today came in New Hampshire for two reasons: The UNH outlier poll that showed Obama by 9 and a trending bonus for Obama that originally was removed due to conflicting trend lines. We also added our projected popular vote leader and deficit. Hope you enjoy these projections and the debate tonight. As always spread the word to other political enthusiasts about this site. We would love to have some more comments as well. Remember, anyone is welcome to add their questions and comments as anonymous if you do not want others to know who you are. Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map
Tonight Could be Romney's Night Unless...
In essence this debate ordinarily would mean the least of the three, but tonight with high numbers of undecideds it could potentially mean more. However, unless we have a knock out tonight then do not expect very many of them to decide since the first few debates have not done anything. I am convinced that while the topic of foreign policy generally favors an incumbent president; Obama will once again have more pressure on him tonight. Why?
1.) A perceived draw will not change the course of the race and probably offer no relief to numbers that keep showing a practically dead even race with the challenger gaining more.
2.) Obama cannot as easily deflect attacks against him with counter attacks. Since Romney does not have much of a foreign policy record so far, there are very little things that he can be attacked on.
3.) Obama is already firmly the favorite among voters when it comes to this issue. Regardless of how well Obama does tonight I do not expect much of a gain in this way. Yet, this is considered a weakness for Romney according to many voters. If he at least holds his own then this could really help.
Therefore, if Romney holds his own tonight and is at least perceived in that light. You would have to say he is the one that benefits the most. Remember undecided voters historically trend towards the challenger when they make up their mind at the last minute. So if undecided voters stay that way tonight then this is a victory in itself.
How could Obama come away as the overwhelming victor? Which is what he must do. Obama's perceived narrow victory in the last debate did nothing to chop away at the massive gains in which Romney made. He needs a big night! Here is how this could be accomplished...
1.) Romney makes an intelligence gaffe that portrays him as not ready, equipped, or knowledgeable enough to be commander in chief. This can also be done by Obama coming across as far more knowledgeable on most of the issues.
2.) Obama finds a sore spot in Romney's past statements and is able to make the entire debate about that one issue and thus repeatedly remind voters of it. Here is one example of something Obama could try and do this on...Romney wanting to increase defense funding more then the Pentagon has currently asked for. But, I do not think this strategy would work unless Romney makes a blunder on this the first time it is brought up.
3.) Obama finds a way to make most of the debate about how he got Osama Bin Ladin. He would likely have to get some help from the moderator on this one, because if he brings it up too many times when it is off subject this can turn into a negative. I still expect Obama to emphasize this tonight as much as he can.
The Wild card is Libya. This is an area that could potentially be dangerous for both candidates. I would call this a high risk, high reward subject especially for Romney. This will come up by the moderator, but the million dollar question is will Romney bring it up himself. If I had to make a guess I think Romney will try and mend the damage incurred last debate on this subject and press Obama as to why the story changed so dramatically. This is not necessarily a winnable strategy, but it has the potential of being damaging to Obama's perceived credibility on the issue.
1.) A perceived draw will not change the course of the race and probably offer no relief to numbers that keep showing a practically dead even race with the challenger gaining more.
2.) Obama cannot as easily deflect attacks against him with counter attacks. Since Romney does not have much of a foreign policy record so far, there are very little things that he can be attacked on.
3.) Obama is already firmly the favorite among voters when it comes to this issue. Regardless of how well Obama does tonight I do not expect much of a gain in this way. Yet, this is considered a weakness for Romney according to many voters. If he at least holds his own then this could really help.
Therefore, if Romney holds his own tonight and is at least perceived in that light. You would have to say he is the one that benefits the most. Remember undecided voters historically trend towards the challenger when they make up their mind at the last minute. So if undecided voters stay that way tonight then this is a victory in itself.
How could Obama come away as the overwhelming victor? Which is what he must do. Obama's perceived narrow victory in the last debate did nothing to chop away at the massive gains in which Romney made. He needs a big night! Here is how this could be accomplished...
1.) Romney makes an intelligence gaffe that portrays him as not ready, equipped, or knowledgeable enough to be commander in chief. This can also be done by Obama coming across as far more knowledgeable on most of the issues.
2.) Obama finds a sore spot in Romney's past statements and is able to make the entire debate about that one issue and thus repeatedly remind voters of it. Here is one example of something Obama could try and do this on...Romney wanting to increase defense funding more then the Pentagon has currently asked for. But, I do not think this strategy would work unless Romney makes a blunder on this the first time it is brought up.
3.) Obama finds a way to make most of the debate about how he got Osama Bin Ladin. He would likely have to get some help from the moderator on this one, because if he brings it up too many times when it is off subject this can turn into a negative. I still expect Obama to emphasize this tonight as much as he can.
The Wild card is Libya. This is an area that could potentially be dangerous for both candidates. I would call this a high risk, high reward subject especially for Romney. This will come up by the moderator, but the million dollar question is will Romney bring it up himself. If I had to make a guess I think Romney will try and mend the damage incurred last debate on this subject and press Obama as to why the story changed so dramatically. This is not necessarily a winnable strategy, but it has the potential of being damaging to Obama's perceived credibility on the issue.
Dealing with Outlier Polls
What is an outlier poll? Any poll that shows a dramatically different result then the consensus of all the other polls. This has often been one of the most difficult questions for prognosticators to answer and to be sure there are a wide range of approaches to the issue. Here are some of the most common ways:
1.) Do nothing since it will probably all averages out in the end. Therefore, they would just average that result with the others. The key problem I have with this system is not always are there outlier polls on both extremes, which means they don't just average out in the end.
2.) Just take away a predetermined number of points away from the poll. This begins to add a lot of potential bias to a formula. How do you determine how many points? Do you dock the same points every time? How is it fair to treat a reputable polling company with a long track record of reasonable results the same as a poll that has had a long shaky past of over polling one party. Just because both of these polls in the above scenario has outlier numbers does not mean that they should be considered the same way.
3.) Discarding outlier polls altogether. While this can be the most tempting solution; I find this answer to complicate matters all the more. Let's say for instance that a poll has had a long track record of biased or inaccurate results and they are showing a result way different then the others. By removing this poll you are offsetting bias with more bias from the other extreme. How then is it fair to draw trend lines incorporating a poll that was thrown out of the average. If you throw out this poll in one state for have outlier numbers how is it fair to keep this poll in another state for showing better numbers. The bottom line is if a poll has no relevance in one state it has no relevance in any other state.
As always consistency is the key. Whatever method that is used has to stay uniform regardless if it shows good news or bad news for your candidate. Using our system we have three different classifications of polling companies that were established before the campaign started and has never changed.
1. One group of polls are those that are reputable and has had a decent track record in the past of not showing overly biased numbers and having reasonably accurate numbers at the end. If one of these polls are within 4 points of the average they will must be weighed like they ordinarily would and not be considered an outlier. If however they are above four points from the average after including there results then you subtract this new average of all the polls from this one poll and divide this number by two. This is the amount that is then docked from the end result.
2. The second classification of polling are those that have had a more sketchy track record in the past and has also shown a consistent bias in past elections or consistently showing outlier numbers in all states in favor of one candidate in this election cycle. If one of these polls are within 3 points of the average they will be weighed like they ordinarily would and not be considered an outlier. But if there result is more then three points from the average. They are temporarily put aside while you calculate the average of the other polls from classification one (shown above) and then you once again subtract this adjusted average with this outlier poll and divide by two. This is the amount that is docked from the end result. The number docked is also known as the median number from the original poll result and the adjusted average of reputable firms.
3. The third classification of polls are very rare. They not only have a bad track record of past accuracy, but to complicate matters they can sometimes show outlier numbers for both candidates depending upon the state. If a poll is new and has bad reviews from both sides and has shown numbers outlier numbers from the norm on both sides then a new method is used. Their result is always put aside at first while all the other polls are averaged in and regardless of how close they are to the average their poll is subtracted from adjusted average and divided by two. The only poll that meets this criteria in this election cycle is Gravis Marketing.
Now let's give an examples of the end results of this system in a toss-up state like Iowa:
Rasmussen- TIED
PPP- Romney by 1
NBC-Obama by 8
We Ask America- Obama by 3
ARG- TIED
Original Average- Obama by 2
In this case the NBC poll is clearly an outlier and will be pushed aside for a moment while we adjust the numbers and average them together.
Rasmussen- Obama by 1
PPP-Romney by 2
We Ask America- Obama by 4
ARG- Obama by 1
New Average- Obama by 1
Now we subtract the NBS results of Obama by 8 with this average of Obama by 1. This makes 7 which is divided in half and makes 3 1/2. The original result of Obama by 8 becomes Obama by 4 1/2
The final polling average with this poll being included becomes Obama by 1.7. What this means is that the adjustment given to the NBC poll is changed every time a reputable firm comes out. So if the adjusted average moves more towards Romney then this NBC poll moves more towards Romney and vice versa. With the slight trending towards Romney the 1.7 margin gets reduced by .50 making the new final projection Obama by 1.2.
A similar thing happened today with the CBS/Quinnipiac poll showing Obama by 5. being poll poll is an outlier the average margin of victory only moved .3 in Obama's favor now with the Suffolk poll showing a Tied race look for even tighter margins by later today.
1.) Do nothing since it will probably all averages out in the end. Therefore, they would just average that result with the others. The key problem I have with this system is not always are there outlier polls on both extremes, which means they don't just average out in the end.
2.) Just take away a predetermined number of points away from the poll. This begins to add a lot of potential bias to a formula. How do you determine how many points? Do you dock the same points every time? How is it fair to treat a reputable polling company with a long track record of reasonable results the same as a poll that has had a long shaky past of over polling one party. Just because both of these polls in the above scenario has outlier numbers does not mean that they should be considered the same way.
3.) Discarding outlier polls altogether. While this can be the most tempting solution; I find this answer to complicate matters all the more. Let's say for instance that a poll has had a long track record of biased or inaccurate results and they are showing a result way different then the others. By removing this poll you are offsetting bias with more bias from the other extreme. How then is it fair to draw trend lines incorporating a poll that was thrown out of the average. If you throw out this poll in one state for have outlier numbers how is it fair to keep this poll in another state for showing better numbers. The bottom line is if a poll has no relevance in one state it has no relevance in any other state.
As always consistency is the key. Whatever method that is used has to stay uniform regardless if it shows good news or bad news for your candidate. Using our system we have three different classifications of polling companies that were established before the campaign started and has never changed.
1. One group of polls are those that are reputable and has had a decent track record in the past of not showing overly biased numbers and having reasonably accurate numbers at the end. If one of these polls are within 4 points of the average they will must be weighed like they ordinarily would and not be considered an outlier. If however they are above four points from the average after including there results then you subtract this new average of all the polls from this one poll and divide this number by two. This is the amount that is then docked from the end result.
2. The second classification of polling are those that have had a more sketchy track record in the past and has also shown a consistent bias in past elections or consistently showing outlier numbers in all states in favor of one candidate in this election cycle. If one of these polls are within 3 points of the average they will be weighed like they ordinarily would and not be considered an outlier. But if there result is more then three points from the average. They are temporarily put aside while you calculate the average of the other polls from classification one (shown above) and then you once again subtract this adjusted average with this outlier poll and divide by two. This is the amount that is docked from the end result. The number docked is also known as the median number from the original poll result and the adjusted average of reputable firms.
3. The third classification of polls are very rare. They not only have a bad track record of past accuracy, but to complicate matters they can sometimes show outlier numbers for both candidates depending upon the state. If a poll is new and has bad reviews from both sides and has shown numbers outlier numbers from the norm on both sides then a new method is used. Their result is always put aside at first while all the other polls are averaged in and regardless of how close they are to the average their poll is subtracted from adjusted average and divided by two. The only poll that meets this criteria in this election cycle is Gravis Marketing.
Now let's give an examples of the end results of this system in a toss-up state like Iowa:
Rasmussen- TIED
PPP- Romney by 1
NBC-Obama by 8
We Ask America- Obama by 3
ARG- TIED
Original Average- Obama by 2
In this case the NBC poll is clearly an outlier and will be pushed aside for a moment while we adjust the numbers and average them together.
Rasmussen- Obama by 1
PPP-Romney by 2
We Ask America- Obama by 4
ARG- Obama by 1
New Average- Obama by 1
Now we subtract the NBS results of Obama by 8 with this average of Obama by 1. This makes 7 which is divided in half and makes 3 1/2. The original result of Obama by 8 becomes Obama by 4 1/2
The final polling average with this poll being included becomes Obama by 1.7. What this means is that the adjustment given to the NBC poll is changed every time a reputable firm comes out. So if the adjusted average moves more towards Romney then this NBC poll moves more towards Romney and vice versa. With the slight trending towards Romney the 1.7 margin gets reduced by .50 making the new final projection Obama by 1.2.
A similar thing happened today with the CBS/Quinnipiac poll showing Obama by 5. being poll poll is an outlier the average margin of victory only moved .3 in Obama's favor now with the Suffolk poll showing a Tied race look for even tighter margins by later today.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Predictions 10/20/2012
What a DAY! Lots of polls. Lots of conflicting polls. Lots of head scratching, humming, and did I mention confusion. Times like this is exactly why I am glad I use an unbiased formula rather then assumptions. Part of the volatility may be as a result of conflicting trend lines. In a perfect world this would not influence polling, but it is a proven fact, as much as anything can be proven when dealing with numerous polls with varying sets of methodology, that polls use trend lines to partially determine how heavy to weight each parties projected turn out. Here is the problem...Several of these states are showing conflicting trends. Therefore, polls are having to make an unusual amount of judgment calls. For example: Yesterday, various polls were showing some signs of a possible minute Obama bounce. We have seen large amounts of evidence over the past week that Romney's bounce had subsided, then we see signs of a slight bump for Obama in some trend lines, and then even stronger evidence over the past 30 hours of something that just does not make sense based upon several other polls...a continuation of the Romney bounce. We are now beginning to see rather substantial evidence from several reputable polls that Romney is doing better then what he was at the height of his first debate bounce. This is extremely good news for the Romney camp. However, the Obama camp can also point to some rays of hope in some of the very same states as other polls with more questionable track records are not only contradicting the continuation of the Romney momentum, but the exact opposite. You could ask 10 prognosticators whether the last 36 hours of polling have been good news or bad news for the candidates and will likely get an opinion based upon what trend lines they want to believe. To try and offset this possible bias I have decided to throw out trend line advantages in any state with at least some level of question. As soon as a a clearer picture is available then I will continue adding this into the formula.
So where does that leave the state of the race now? Pretty much exactly where it was before this mass of polling...a very tight race with uncertainties for both candidates. As a whole, Romney has clearly benefited more from the stretch. Numerous states such as: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio have tightened or in the case of New Hampshire has become an exact tie according to our formula. While several websites have placed this state in Romney's column it has not been quite enough to do this in our formula. As is the case in Colorado, I am continuing to give the original leader, (which in this case is the President) credit for the electoral votes in my final projection. While I am perfectly willing to change this final projection when the numbers dictate, my formula does not lend itself to lots of status changes. As a result there may be times that I will require additional evidence while the others make quick status changes and later have to go back and change them a day or two later.
How much are they up by?
The Ohio margin of victory for Obama is now 1.6
The Florida margin of victory for Romney is now 2.0
The Iowa margin of victory for Obama is now 2.1
The Virginia margin of victory for Romney is now 0.9
The Wisconsin margin of victory for Obama is now 2.2
So where does that leave the state of the race now? Pretty much exactly where it was before this mass of polling...a very tight race with uncertainties for both candidates. As a whole, Romney has clearly benefited more from the stretch. Numerous states such as: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio have tightened or in the case of New Hampshire has become an exact tie according to our formula. While several websites have placed this state in Romney's column it has not been quite enough to do this in our formula. As is the case in Colorado, I am continuing to give the original leader, (which in this case is the President) credit for the electoral votes in my final projection. While I am perfectly willing to change this final projection when the numbers dictate, my formula does not lend itself to lots of status changes. As a result there may be times that I will require additional evidence while the others make quick status changes and later have to go back and change them a day or two later.
Here are my projections in map form. Political Prognosticator Map
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How much are they up by?
The Ohio margin of victory for Obama is now 1.6
The Florida margin of victory for Romney is now 2.0
The Iowa margin of victory for Obama is now 2.1
The Virginia margin of victory for Romney is now 0.9
The Wisconsin margin of victory for Obama is now 2.2
Friday, October 19, 2012
Predictions 10/19/2012
Sometimes a good day just doesn't show up in the score card. This was the case in these updated projectes as of noon. While there were several changes in my confidence levels and ultimatelty the margin in some of these states tilted more towards Obama, it was not quite enough to change any categories. Colorado is now a tie that you could just as easily flip a coin then to declare someone the leader there right now. Yet, I will place it still in Romney's camp just on the basis of him being the previous leader. To complicate matters there, some reputable firms are showing varying results. Ohio is still approximately a 2 point lead for Obama and thus it is a toss-up. The only significant changes was actually for Romney in that North Carolina is now out of leaning status and unless further shake ups arrive this should be considered a safe state for Romney. Despite a few requests for a status change in Pennslyvania being taken from Safe Obama to leaning Obama. I just cannot do it for reasons posted in my previous posts. I will say it is approximately a 4 point lead there for Obama and because I do not like to change states in and out of categories when they are on the edge I will await more evidence.
Thanks to those who have recently checked out our new blog and I trust you will book mark this site and spread the word to others. We seen a sharp increase in views and visitors over the past 24 hours. As always we welcome constructive comments and questions on here.
Here are my projections in map form. Political Prognosticator Map
Thanks to those who have recently checked out our new blog and I trust you will book mark this site and spread the word to others. We seen a sharp increase in views and visitors over the past 24 hours. As always we welcome constructive comments and questions on here.
Here are my projections in map form. Political Prognosticator Map
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Polling Discrepancies
Gallup General Election Polls
No doubt everyone heard the news by no of the general election poll from gallup that reads Romney by 7 among likely voters. Three things to consider about this poll...
1.) They have a very suspect track record in the past and of greater importance is their reputation for having findings away from the norm. As easy as it would be to look at this poll and think that it must surely mean Romney is winning, there is just not enough evidence in one isolated poll to draw those conclusions. One must consider this poll as an outlier and wait patiently to see if other polls start to follow there trend. My guess based upon toady's Rasmussen tracking poll is that this poll means very little.
2.) Ordinarily, likely voter polls are far more accurate then registered voter polls. However, in this case gallup has a very sketchy model or screen they employ to discern likely voters.
3.) This is merely a general election tracking poll that compiles information aver a seven day window...it does not reflect substantial information on any given swing state and is mainly used for trending purposes. Generally these tracking polls that stretch there findings over this long of period tends to be very volatile and subject to dramatic swings. My best guess is that it will begun to retreat closer to the norm of an approximately dead even race nationally in the days to come.
4.) Those of you that love Rasmussen tracking needs to look no further then today's poll which shows it a tie. This is a two point swing overnight and can potentially be a sign that Obama is going to see a small jump from the past debate. Tomorrows poll will be the first one that is compiled entirely post debate. However, Romney did jump one point yesterday so it may be a little early to project much from this. It is a bad sign for a positive poll for a republican when Rasmussen (a reputatble poll with a slight republican bias as a whole) is 5-6 points different
Susquehanna Poll Showing Romney by 4 in Pennslyvania
Democrats step away from the cliff! Republicans stop your Romney inaugeration plans! This poll that is taken from the republican party is also an outlier that has not yet seen any verification from other polls that the race is truly dead locked in the Keystone state. Yes, other recent polls has shown some pretty dramatic movement towards Romney, but nothing like this. This poll has been fair in years past, but has also shown a 2-3 point republican lean. I know in this case that would still be tremendous news for the Romney columnm, except this is just one poll.
Using my formula...this effectively makes this about a 4 point race in Obama's favor still. Generally, I would take a state out of the safe column and move it to the Leaning Obama column when the margin hits 4 points. However, in this case I am going to withhold judgment until more data arrives. Since the over all adjusted average of polls show about a 4 1/2 point race without the outlers and gernally bad ones this adjusts this poll back to a razor thin margin for Obama. The next couple days will be crucial in making a decision here. Since polls like these are placed at the median point between the poll and the adjusted average of other polls. Any additional evidence that this is even a 2-3 point race will adjust this Susquehanna poll back towards Romney and can dramatically change the picture. Yet, the same is also true if a reputable firm shows this a 6-7 point race for Obama. I will not change the category a state is in just to make people feel good about the race.
Yesterday's Good Day for Obama
There was some fairly good news for Obama yeseterday, but when adding in these numbers it still does not alter the final projected numbers. The two NBC/WSJ/Marist polls has a couple thing against it. First, it showed outlier numbers that is not reflective by other reputable firms. Plus this poll has a pretty clear democrat bias in past elections. When reverting these numbers and plugging them into the states it was still not enough to change Wisconsin out of a toss-up that is projected to go towards Obama and Iowa is still in the leaning Obama column. The PPP democratic poll from Colorado does change things a little in that a very suspect lead for Romney became a literal tie in my projections.
No doubt everyone heard the news by no of the general election poll from gallup that reads Romney by 7 among likely voters. Three things to consider about this poll...
1.) They have a very suspect track record in the past and of greater importance is their reputation for having findings away from the norm. As easy as it would be to look at this poll and think that it must surely mean Romney is winning, there is just not enough evidence in one isolated poll to draw those conclusions. One must consider this poll as an outlier and wait patiently to see if other polls start to follow there trend. My guess based upon toady's Rasmussen tracking poll is that this poll means very little.
2.) Ordinarily, likely voter polls are far more accurate then registered voter polls. However, in this case gallup has a very sketchy model or screen they employ to discern likely voters.
3.) This is merely a general election tracking poll that compiles information aver a seven day window...it does not reflect substantial information on any given swing state and is mainly used for trending purposes. Generally these tracking polls that stretch there findings over this long of period tends to be very volatile and subject to dramatic swings. My best guess is that it will begun to retreat closer to the norm of an approximately dead even race nationally in the days to come.
4.) Those of you that love Rasmussen tracking needs to look no further then today's poll which shows it a tie. This is a two point swing overnight and can potentially be a sign that Obama is going to see a small jump from the past debate. Tomorrows poll will be the first one that is compiled entirely post debate. However, Romney did jump one point yesterday so it may be a little early to project much from this. It is a bad sign for a positive poll for a republican when Rasmussen (a reputatble poll with a slight republican bias as a whole) is 5-6 points different
Susquehanna Poll Showing Romney by 4 in Pennslyvania
Democrats step away from the cliff! Republicans stop your Romney inaugeration plans! This poll that is taken from the republican party is also an outlier that has not yet seen any verification from other polls that the race is truly dead locked in the Keystone state. Yes, other recent polls has shown some pretty dramatic movement towards Romney, but nothing like this. This poll has been fair in years past, but has also shown a 2-3 point republican lean. I know in this case that would still be tremendous news for the Romney columnm, except this is just one poll.
Using my formula...this effectively makes this about a 4 point race in Obama's favor still. Generally, I would take a state out of the safe column and move it to the Leaning Obama column when the margin hits 4 points. However, in this case I am going to withhold judgment until more data arrives. Since the over all adjusted average of polls show about a 4 1/2 point race without the outlers and gernally bad ones this adjusts this poll back to a razor thin margin for Obama. The next couple days will be crucial in making a decision here. Since polls like these are placed at the median point between the poll and the adjusted average of other polls. Any additional evidence that this is even a 2-3 point race will adjust this Susquehanna poll back towards Romney and can dramatically change the picture. Yet, the same is also true if a reputable firm shows this a 6-7 point race for Obama. I will not change the category a state is in just to make people feel good about the race.
Yesterday's Good Day for Obama
There was some fairly good news for Obama yeseterday, but when adding in these numbers it still does not alter the final projected numbers. The two NBC/WSJ/Marist polls has a couple thing against it. First, it showed outlier numbers that is not reflective by other reputable firms. Plus this poll has a pretty clear democrat bias in past elections. When reverting these numbers and plugging them into the states it was still not enough to change Wisconsin out of a toss-up that is projected to go towards Obama and Iowa is still in the leaning Obama column. The PPP democratic poll from Colorado does change things a little in that a very suspect lead for Romney became a literal tie in my projections.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Predictions 10/17/2012
The last couple days have not been very busy on the polling front so there was little reason to post an update on my predictions. However, we have seen some rather significant data today to change the status of two states. Nevada has moved from toss-up to a leaning Obama state due to two reputable polls showing a three point margin and a slight trending towards Obama. Wisconsin has moved from a leaning Obama to a toss-up due to a very good poll from Marquette University (great accuracy in past Wisconsin elections and was one of the very few that were very solid in the Wisconsin recall race) showing the race as within a half of one percent for Obama. This poll along with the trending towards Romney makes this only a .83 margin for Obama according to my formula. This poll will be welcome news in the Romney camp since this state has not been a part of his most plausible path to victory. (Winning Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) With Wisconsin in play this gives Romney some margin of erorr in the event he loses Ohio. Note: An asterick after a state signifies a change of category from the last predictions and as always EV stands for Electoral votes.
Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map
Click on the following link to see my projections in map form with toss ups: Political Prognosticator Map
Toss-Up States |
Projected Winner |
EV |
Confidence |
Change |
| Colorado | Romney | 9 | 60% | 0% |
| Florida | Romney | 29 | 65% | 0% |
| New Hampshire | Obama | 4 | 60% | 0% |
| Ohio | Obama | 18 | 65% | 0% |
| Virginia | Romney | 13 | 55% | 0% |
| Wisconsin* | Obama | 10 | 60% | 10% |
| Leaning States | ||||
| Iowa | Obama | 6 | 75% | 5% |
| Nevada* | Obama | 6 | 80% | 15% |
| North Carolina | Romney | 15 | 80% | 0% |
| Leaning States | Obama | 12 | 70-85% | 4 |
| Romney | 15 | 70-85% | 0 | |
| Safe States | Obama | 237 | 90% + | 0 |
| Romney | 191 | 90% + | 0 | |
| Total | Obama | 249 | 4 | |
| Romney | 206 | |||
| Toss-Ups | 83 | 50-65% | 4 | |
| Projected Finish | Obama | 281 | 0 | |
| Romney | 257 | 0 |
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